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    1991~2035年中国创新能力的动态演化和国际比较

    摘要

    科技创新是引领发展、改善民生的第一动力。本报告从创新环境、创新资源、创新成果以及创新效益4个领域,对我国创新能力进行全面考察。首先,利用系统聚类法将我国1991~2018年的创新发展历程划分为4个阶段:1991~1999年为起步阶段、2000~2007年为加速发展阶段、2008~2014年为稳步发展阶段、2015~2018年为高质量发展阶段。其次,以各项创新指标2008年的数值作为比较基准,编制2008~2018年我国国家创新能力发展指数。最后,将中国与7个创新型国家的创新能力核心指标进行对比分析,以美国、日本两国的创新能力核心指标数值作为标杆值,计算并预测1991~2035年我国创新能力追赶指数。结果表明,虽然我国的科技创新能力显著提升,但仍被科技成果转化率较低、基础研究投入较少、就业人群中研究人员比重较小等因素制约。今后应加大对基础研究和应用研究的投入,重视对基础研究人力资源的培养和支持,构建以企业为主体、以市场为导向、产学研深度融合的技术创新体系,切实提高科技成果转化的绩效。

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    Abstract

    Science Technology Innovation (STI) is the first driving force to improve development and people’s livelihood. This report makes a comprehensive evaluation of China’s innovation capability from four areas:innovation environment,innovation resources,innovation achievements and innovation benefits. First of all,the hierarchical clustering method is used to divide China’s innovation development process from 1991 to 2018 into 4 stages:1991-1999 is the initial stage,2000-2007 is the accelerated development stage,2008-2014 is the stable development stage,2015-2018 is the high-quality development stage. Secondly,the national innovation capacity development index of China from 2008 to 2018 is compiled based on the values of various innovation indicators in 2008. Finally,this report compares and analyzes the core indicators of innovation capability between China and seven innovative countries,and calculates and forecasts the catch-up index of China’s innovation capability from 1991 to 2035 by taking the core indicators of innovation capability of the United States and Japan as the benchmark value. The results show that although China’s innovation ability has been significantly improved,it is still restricted by factors such as low conversion rate of scientific and technological achievements,low investment in basic research,and a small proportion of researchers among the employed population. In the future,it is necessary to increase the investment in basic research and applied research,attach importance to the cultivation and support of human resources in basic research,build a technology innovation system with enterprises as the main body,market-oriented,and deep integration of industry,university and research,and effectively improve the performance of scientific and technological achievements transformation.

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    作者简介
    陈钰芬:陈钰芬,浙江工商大学统计与数学学院副院长、教授,研究方向为科技创新评价和测度、企业创新管理与战略决策等。
    侯睿婕:侯睿婕,浙江工商大学统计与数学学院讲师,研究方向为科技统计。
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