从宏观经济指标来看,2007年中国经济延续了2006年的强劲扩张趋势,继续保持高经济增长与低通货膨胀的良好配合格局。2008年,实际GDP增长速度将向潜在GDP增长速度回归,使得实际GDP水平相应向潜在GDP水平回归。从宏观经济形势来看,2007年与2008年国民收入相对缺口不会过度偏离零基准状态,在波峰年度2007年达到极大值后将向零基准收敛而排除总体经济过热危险;资源性产品价格的持续上涨是难以避免的,中国经济将保持温和的通货膨胀率,长期呈现从PPI指数到GDP平减指数到核心CPI指数依次递减的动态价格结构。在宏观经济政策方面,应该建立最高可持续增长率目标,完善和改革公共财政体制,积极引导实体经济跟踪发展以使其逐渐与虚拟经济适应,促进劳动力工资、人力资本投资与劳动生产率的良性互动。
<<According to the macroeconomic indexes,we can see that China’s economy kept grow remarkably in 2007,and maintained the well structure of high economic growth and low inflation. In 2008,real GDP growth rate will converge to the underlying GDP growth rate,which will lead the real GDP closer to the underlying GDP,In terms of the macroeconomic situation,the relative GDP gap between 2007 and 2008 will not differ from the zero benchmark excessively,and the gap will converge to the zero benchmark after it reach the peak in 2007 so that the overall economy will not become “overheated”;the rise of price of resource products is unavoidable,so there will be mild inflation in Chinese economy,which will show a dynamic price structure of PPI,GDP deflator and core CPI diminishing one by one in the long run. For macroeconomic policies,we should set a target of the highest sustainable growth rate,improve and reform public fiscal system,lead the development of entity economy to meet the requirements of virtual economy,and promote the sound interaction among labor’s wage,human resource investment and productivity.
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