报告通过分析主要经济指标的动态监测结果,以及“宏观经济景气分析系统”建立的先行、一致和滞后景气指数,总结了当前的经济景气状况和经济周期态势;利用预警指标信号,对主要经济景气指标的波动特征和近期变动趋势做了进一步分析;利用多种经济计量模型,对经济景气和主要宏观经济指标的未来走势进行了预测;分析了我国现阶段居民消费价格和房价上涨的原因及趋势;在此基础上,提出了相关的政策建议。
<<Based on the dynamic monitoring result for major economic indicators,and the leading,consistent and lagging index given by “Macro-economic Analysis System”,this article summarized the current economic prosperity and the situation of economic cycle. Using early warning indicators’ signal,the article further analyzed the fluctuating characteristics of main indicator of economic prosperity and its recent movements. This article also predicted the future trend of economic prosperity and the main macro-economic indicators,and provided analysis on the reasons and trends of China’s consumer price as well as the real estate price. Suggestions on relevant policy were put forward.
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