回顾2020年,我国信用债市场净融资快速上升,而与此同时违约债券金额创历史新高,违约公司结构以国有企业为主。2020年下半年以来国企共违约5家,其中永煤集团出现了超预期的高信用等级违约,且违约前进行资产转移,出现了明显的低偿债意愿,动摇了信用债分析基础,给市场带来不利影响,导致11月信用债推迟或取消发行数量大幅增加,信用利差持续上行。同时,永煤集团作为河南省的煤炭国企违约,致使河南债券连续46天无新券发行,煤炭行业也连续11周净融资额为负。对比国外评级机构,我们认为当前我国信用债评级区分度低,具有较弱违约前瞻性,而中债隐含评级可能是一个更好的方法。
<<In 2020,the net financing of the credit bond market rose rapidly,while at the same time the amount of defaulted bonds hit a record high,and the structure of defaulted companies was dominated by state-owned enterprises. A total of five SOEs have defaulted since the second half of 2020,of which Yongcheng Coal and Electricity,as an over-expected high credit-grade default and asset transfer before default,showed an obvious low willingness to repay debts,shaking the foundation of credit bond analysis and bringing adverse impact to the market,leading to a significant increase in the number of delayed or cancelled issuance of credit bonds in November and a continuous upward trend in credit spreads. Meanwhile,a coal SOE in Henan Province,its default resulted in no new issuance of Henan bonds for 46 consecutive days,and the coal industry also continued to have negative net financing for 11 consecutive weeks. Compared with foreign rating agencies,we believe that the current credit bond rating in China is low in differentiation and has a weak default predictive power,while the implied rating of Chinese bonds may be a better approach.
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