本报告选取北京市、天津市、河北省的区域性金融风险作为研究对象,采用熵权法对区域性金融风险指标进行了测算。分析发现:在其他因素不变的情况下,第一,随着地方政府负债率的增加,同时期区域金融杠杆率也在不断地增长,且放大效应明显;第二,区域金融杠杆率的上升会显著提升同期区域性金融风险;第三,区域金融杠杆率对于区域性金融风险不仅具有同期正向影响,同时也具有一定的跨期相关性;第四,政府负债率的提高会通过抬高区域金融杠杆率的途径间接增加同期以及未来的区域性金融风险,但是政府负债率或许不是推高区域金融杠杆率的唯一因素;第五,GDP增长速度放缓以及PPI增加均会显著增加区域性金融风险。建议建设京津冀区域性金融风险联合预警机制,统一京津冀区域金融监管的准则,加强对地方政府债务的管理。
<<The stable and safe development of regional finance is an important guarantee for the healthy and stable macro-economy. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of regional financial risks and maintain the stable development of China’s overall economy. This paper selects the individual fixed effect model to investigate the regional financial risk of Beijing Tianjin Hebei province,and calculates the regional financial risk index with the direct weight method. It studies the influence path that the high debt ratio of local government leads to the rise of regional financial leverage ratio,which will increase the regional financial risk under the background of the slowdown of GDP growth. According to the research results,this paper proposes to prevent and control the regional financial risk from the perspectives of the joint early warning mechanism of Beijing Tianjin Hebei province,the unified financial regulatory standards and the strengthening of local government debt management.
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