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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    中国数字经济规模测算及“十四五”预测(2021)

    摘要

    本报告在数字经济概念辨析的基础上,围绕信息通信技术(ICT)在数字经济中的基础性支撑作用,从ICT渗透性、替代性、协同性等技术—经济特征出发,将数字经济界定为”数字产业化“和”产业数字化“两部分,构建以增长核算为基础的数字经济增加值测算框架,据以对1993~2020年各年中国数字经济规模进行测算,并尝试着对中国”十四五“期间数字经济规模进行估算预测。相关结果表明:1993~2020年,中国数字经济平均增速为16。3%,已成为经济增长的重要引擎;2020年中国数字经济增加值规模超过19万亿元,占GDP比重约为18。8%;预计”十四五“时期数字经济年均名义增速将达到11。3%,到2025年的增加值规模将超过32。67万亿元(名义值),其中数字产业化增加值约为15。52万亿元,产业数字化增加值为17。15万亿元。现有测算方法总体延续了国民经济统计核算的惯性思维,忽略新业态新模式衍生出的效率效用提升、消费者剩余增加等趋势,应超越增加值核算,尝试新的测度衡量方式,以全面刻画数字经济发展状况。

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    Abstract

    Based on the concept analysis of digital economy,this paper focuses on the fundamental supporting role of Information and Communication Technology(ICT)in the digital economy,starts from ICT’s techno-economic characteristics of pervasiveness,substitution,and synergy,defines the digital economy as two integral parts as “digital industrialization” and “industrial digitalization”,and constructs a framework for calculating the added value of the digital economy based on growth accounting. Based on the above,the scale of China’s digital economy from 1993 to 2019 is measured on a year-on-year basis,and an attempt is made to evaluate and forecast the scale of China’s digital economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Results show that:From 1993 to 2019,the average growth rate of China’s digital economy was 16.6%,which has become an important engine for China’s economic growth;In 2019,China’s digital economy has an added value of more than 17 trillion yuan,accounting for approximately 17.2% of GDP;It is expected that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the average annual nominal growth rate of the digital economy will reach 11.3%. By 2025,the scale of added value will exceed 32.67 trillion yuan (nominal value),of which the added value from digital industrialization is about 15.52 trillion yuan,and about 17.15 trillion yuan from industrial digitalization. Existing measurement methods generally inherit from national economy statistics and accounting,ignoring the efficiency and utility improvement and the increase of consumer surplus derived from new business models and new models. Against this backdrop,it is necessary to go beyond value-added accounting and try new measurement methods to fully showcase the status quo of the development of digital economy.

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    作者简介
    蔡跃洲:
    牛新星:
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