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    2020~2021年北京市金融运行形势分析与预测

    摘要

    本报告通过分析2020年北京市金融运行特点发现,金融宏观调控和信贷政策导向评估效果良好,存贷款增速总体平稳,其中人民币存款和人民币贷款均保持较高增速,外币存款和外币贷款增速回升,金融对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度加大,直接融资规模持续提高,贷款利率明显下行,企业融资成本持续降低。需要关注疫情导致金融风险可能具有滞后性,后期不良贷款存在上升压力,部分中小金融机构风险或进一步恶化;绿色金融基础能力市场化程度有待提高;与科创企业生命周期特点相匹配的融资市场体系还有待优化等问题。预计2021年,北京市金融业将以新发展理念更好地发挥对常态化疫情防控工作和经济高质量发展的支持作用,货币信贷和社会融资规模保持合理增长,流动性合理充裕,融资结构进一步优化,企业综合融资成本稳中有降。

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    Abstract

    This article analyzes the characteristics of Beijing’s financial operations in 2020. The analysis finds that financial macro-control and credit policy orientation evaluation results are well,and the growth rate of deposits and loans has been generally stable. Beside,RMB deposits and RMB loans have maintained a relatively high growth rate. The growth rate of foreign currency loans has rebounded,financial support for key areas and weak links has increased,the scale of direct financing has continued to increase,loan interest rates have dropped significantly,and corporate financing costs have continued to decrease. It is necessary to pay attention to the possible lag of financial risks caused by the epidemic,the rising pressure of non-performing loans in the later stage,and the risks of some small and medium-sized financial institutions may further deteriorate;the degree of mercerization of the basic capabilities of green finance needs to be improved. There is still issue to be optimized such that financing market system matches the characteristics the life cycle of innovation and technology enterprises. It is expected that in 2021,Beijing’s financial industry will use the new development concept to better play its role in supporting normalized epidemic prevention and control and high-quality economic development. The scale of monetary credit and social financing will maintain reasonable growth,the liquidity will be reasonable and abundant,and the financing structure will be further improved. Optimized,and the overall financing cost of the enterprise has been steadily decreasing.

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    作者简介
    高菲:高菲,经济学博士,中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处干部,主要研究方向为宏观经济、国际金融等。
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