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    2019年中国35个城市居民消费者信心指数报告

    摘要

    本次通过问卷调查了中国35个城市居民的消费者信心指数,结果显示,2019年中国35个城市居民消费者信心指数加权平均值为138。61,35个城市居民的消费者信心指数全部超过100,全部高于2018年的水平,这表明中国经济未来向消费驱动转型具有良好的基础。分地区比较的结果表明,中部和西部地区的城市居民的消费者信心指数略高于东北和东部地区城市居民的消费者信心指数,不同地区间的消费者信心指数的变化方向是一致的,变化幅度也较为一致。通过相关性分析发现,消费者信心指数的变化与通货膨胀率指数和消费率指数的变化具有高度正相关性,说明消费者信心的增强,会导致通货膨胀水平增高,同时也会使居民的消费率有所提高。回归分析影响消费者信心变化的主要因素,结果表明人均可支配收入、基本医疗保险覆盖率和失业保险覆盖率的提高对消费者信心指数具有很强的正向作用,而人均财富水平和社会保险覆盖率对消费者信心的影响并不是正向的。据此,稳定消费者信心的关键在于稳定居民的收入和就业,此外还要稳定和扩大社会保障的覆盖范围,并不断发展和完善金融市场。

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    Abstract

    The questionnaire survey investigated the consumer confidence of the 35 Chinese cities. According to the survey findings,in 2019,the weighted mean of the consumer confidence sub-indices is 138.61. The values of all the 35 cities exceed 100 and are higher than that of 2018,indicating that a good foundation has been laid for China’s transition into consumer-oriented economy. Regional comparison shows that the sub-indices of the central and the western regions are slightly higher than those of the northeastern and the eastern regions,and that the sub-indices of different regions are generally consistent in the direction and range of changes. Through correlation analysis,it is found that changes of the consumer confidence sub-index are highly and positively correlated with that of the inflation rate and the consumption rate. That is to say,increase in consumer confidence will lead to higher inflation and consumption. According to the regression analysis of the major influential factors of consumer confidence changes,improvements in per capita disposable income or the coverage of basic medical insurance/unemployment insurance have a strong positive impact on the sub-index,but not per capita wealth or social insurance coverage. Therefore,the key to stabilizing consumer confidence lies in the stabilization of residents’ income and employment,as well as the coverage of improved social security,along with the continuous development and improvement of the financial market.

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    作者简介
    王钰:王钰,首都经济贸易大学经济学院教授,主要研究方向为经济增长与经济周期。
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