2017年以来,北京陆续发布了一系列政策,将发展租购并举房地产市场作为北京住房长效调控机制的重要举措。为把脉北京租赁住房价格走势,本研究通过对北京近五年来住房租赁市场价格数据进行量化分析,从宏观、中观和微观层面分析租金走势背后的成因。研究发现:2014~2019年,北京二手住宅租金指数呈现波动式上升趋势;2018年北京租金环比年增速为五年最高,呈“先涨后稳”态势;2019年北京租金价格整体相对平稳,核心城区与非核心城区租金走势分化。基于北京实际数据,宏观层面,北京租金主要影响因素为常住外来人口和房屋销售量。外来常住人口和房屋销售量增加1%,租金分别上涨1。68%和下降0。373%。微观层面,北京租赁中介金融化行为和租赁住房供求不平衡推高租赁住房市场价格,此外,北京房租随房价的同向上涨一定程度上也是对住房市场低租售比的市场化修复。研究最后提出了规范住房租赁市场、稳定住房租金、落实北京房地产市场长效调控机制等相关政策建议。
<<Since 2017,Beijing has successively issued a series of policies that regard the simultaneously development of the rent-purchase housing market as an important measure for Beijing’s long-term housing regulation mechanism. The development,maturity,and standardization of the housing leasing market will help to effectively use housing resources and better improve the living conditions of urban residents,and has a significant impact on the overall operation of the housing trading market and the real estate market. In order to diagnose the trends of Beijing rental housing price,this study uses a quantitative analysis of Beijing’s housing rental market price data in the past five years,and analyzes the causes behind the rental trend from the macro,meso,and micro levels. The study found that in the past five years from 2014 to 2019,the second-hand residential rent index in Beijing showed a volatile upward trend;in 2018,Beijing’s rental growth rate was the highest in five years,showing a trend of “increase first and then stabilization”;The overall rental price in 2019 is relatively stable,and the trend of rents Showing differentiation between core urban areas and non-core urban areas in Beijing. Based on the empirical data of Beijing,the study shows that the main influencing factors of rent in Beijing are the migrants and total housing sales. The total amount of migrants and housing sales increased by 1%,the rental housing price increased by 1.68% and decreased by 0.373% respectively. On the meso level,the price rise of Beijing housing rental market is affected by industry tax,financial policy and other factors;at the micro level,the financial behavior of leasing agency and the imbalance of supply and demand of rental housing in Beijing have pushed up the market price of rental housing. In addition,the rise of rent in Beijing along with the same direction of housing sales prices is to some extent a market-oriented repair of the low rent-to-sales ratio in the housing market. In the end,some policy suggestions are put forward to regulate the housing rental market,stabilize the housing rent and implement the long-term regulation mechanism of Beijing real estate market.
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