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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2020年中国房地产市场回顾和2021年展望

    摘要

    2020年,疫情之下,中央的宏观政策对于住宅市场未有放松,意味着未来很长时间内,这一领域的调控政策都易紧难松,政策周期论失灵。购房人口峰值已过,商品房成交面积已到历史峰值区间,后续将大概率缓慢下滑。在一些市场热度很高、供应依然不足、居民杠杆率健康的大型城市,2021年的房价上涨动力会较强,即便后续出台调控政策也难改短期趋势。大宗交易市场的整体复苏仍需要时日,投资者会在这一期间更多关注受疫情影响较小的另类资产。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,China continued to implement its tight property market regulation despite the covid-19 pandemic,which means that for a long time in the future,Beijing is unlikely to loosen its tight grip on housing market and the policy cycle will disappear. Currently,the number of buyers have dropped and the total sales of commodity residential housing has reached peak levels and is likely to fall slowly in the following time. However,in some large cities with the hot real estate market,insufficient supply,and healthy residents’ leverage ratio,housing prices is estimated to rise in 2021 even though the regulatory policies may be introduced to curb the heat. The overall recovery of the block trading market still takes time,and investors will pay more attention to alternative assets that are less affected by the pandemic during this period.

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    作者简介
    赵红英:赵红英,现供职于中国建投不动产经营管理部/建投嘉昱,主要从事不动产投资领域的研究。
    乔林:乔林,现供职于中国建投不动产经营管理部/建投嘉昱,主要从事不动产投资领域的研究。
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