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    2020年中印边界问题困境、解决难点与未来前景

    摘要

    历史遗留的边界问题是中印两国间极为敏感的问题,既涉及彼此民族情绪,也关乎两国威信与尊严。目前,中印两国已经就解决边界问题的“三步走”路线图形成共识,确立了解决边界问题的政治指导原则,然而第二步框架谈判进展却较为缓慢。近年来边界对峙事件呈多发态势,不仅导致落实边境管控机制措施和有效管控边境局势的难度上升,维持边境现状以及和平安宁也遭遇现实挑战。早日解决边界问题并将其作为一项战略目标推进是两国重要共识,尤其是加勒万河谷事件后解决边界问题的紧迫性显著上升,但客观来看仍面临诸多阻碍因素,短期内达成一个公平合理和双方都能接受的解决方案的可能性仍较低。未来,中印两国需要相向而行,通过外交与军事渠道进行多层面磋商与沟通,共同维护好边境地区和平安宁,为边界谈判和两国关系发展创造有利条件。长期看,边界问题的最终解决不仅需要互谅互让,更需要两国领导人的政治决断。

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    Abstract

    The boundary question left over from history is extremely sensitive for China and India,which involves national sentiment,prestige and dignity of both countries. China and India already reached consensus on a three-stage process and established the guiding principles for a boundary settlement,while the progress of working out a framework of settlement has been slow. The border standoff occurred frequently in recent years,which not only made it more difficult to implement border control mechanisms and effectively manage border areas,but also posed realistic challenges to maintaining the status quo of the border as well as peace and tranquility. Early settlement of the boundary problem and promoting the process as a strategic objective is an important consensus between the two countries,and the urgency to resolve the border issue has risen sharply after the Galwan Valley clash. However,a final solution to the problem still faces many obstacles,and it is of low possibility for reaching a fair,reasonable and mutually acceptable solution in a short term. In the near future,China and India should meet each other halfway,continue to maintain consultations and communication through diplomatic and military channels,ensure peace and tranquility in the border areas,and create favorable atmosphere for the border talks and the development of bilateral ties. In the long run,the final settlement of the boundary question requires not only give-and-take but also political determination of the leaders of the two countries.

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    作者简介
    吴兆礼:吴兆礼,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员,山东大学南亚研究中心研究员。
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