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    2020年广东省地方政府债券分析报告

    摘要

    近年来随着地方政府举债制度日渐完善,广东省地方债发行规模逐年增长,目前存量规模较大。2020年,为应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击,广东省地方债发行集中度提高且节奏提前,发行期限更趋延长,二级市场更趋活跃。广东省项目收益专项债发行规模居全国首位,其募投领域向交通基础设施、市政和产业园区基础设施等领域转变,对基建投资的撬动规模较大,但其作为资本金对投资增长的撬动效应尚未完全释放。从地方政府债务情况看,债务限额空间较大,在财政实力的支撑下偿债能力极强,债务风险较小。未来广东省应合理利用地方政府债务限额剩余空间,将地方债的投资拉动作用主要发挥在有重大投资项目且政府预算相对紧张的区域。

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    Abstract

    In recent years,as the local governments’ borrowing system has been improved,the issuing scale of local government bonds in Guangdong has increased gradually,and the stock scale was large among provinces. In 2020,in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic,Guangdong have increased the concentration of local government bonds and advanced the issuing pace. Meanwhile,the issuance period has been extended and the secondary market has been more active. Guangdong ranked the first in terms of the issuance scale of project income special bonds in China. Its fundraising and investment field was shifted to transportation infrastructure,municipal administration and industrial parks,and its leveraging effect on infrastructure investment was relatively large. However,its leveraging effect on investment growth as capital has not been fully released. From the perspective of local government debt,Guangdong’s debt limit space was large. Under the support of fiscal strength,the debt repayment ability was strong and the debt risk was relatively small. In the future,Guangdong should make rational use of the remaining space of local government debt limit,and play the investment-driving role of local government bonds mainly in areas with major investment projects and relatively tight government budget.

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    作者简介
    刘艳美:刘艳美,中诚信国际政府公共评级部(上海)高级分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    胡玲雅:胡玲雅,中诚信国际政府公共评级部(上海)分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    王飞:王飞,中诚信国际政府公共评级部(上海)分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    王慧:王慧,中诚信国际政府公共评级部(上海)分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
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