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    2020年宁夏回族自治区地方政府债券分析报告

    摘要

    宁夏回族自治区(以下简称“宁夏”)存量地方债规模较小,在全国排名居于末段。2020年1~6月,宁夏地方债发行整体放缓,期限明显加长,发行利率及发行利差居全国首位且呈上升趋势。从项目收益专项债来看,整体发行规模下降较大,投向主要包含交通基础设施、市政和产业园区基础设施及民生服务等领域,涉及范围较广且收益覆盖尚可,但对基建规模撬动有限。受该地区经济及财政实力较弱的影响,宁夏财政平衡能力较弱,对上级补助依赖性较强。此外,2019年,宁夏债务率较往年增幅较大且超过国际警戒标准,宁夏未来或存在一定债务压力,但地方政府债务相对举债空间较大,整体风险可控。

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    Abstract

    Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region(hereinafter referred to as “Ningxia”)had a relatively small stock of local government bonds and ranked at the bottom of the country. In the first half of 2020,the issuance of local government bonds in Ningxia slowed down overall,and the maturity was significantly longer. Issuance costs and issuance spreads ranked first in the country and showed an upward trend. Specifically,from the perspective of project income special bonds,the overall issuance scale dropped significantly. The investment mainly included transportation infrastructure,municipal and industrial park infrastructure,and people’s livelihood services. The scope was wide and the income coverage was acceptable,but the scale of infrastructure movement was limited. Affected by the weak economic and financial strength of the region,Ningxia’s financial balance ability was weak,and it was highly dependent on superior subsidies. In addition,at the end of 2019,Ningxia’s debt ratio increased significantly compared with previous years and exceeded international warning standards. Ningxia may have certain debt pressures in the future,but local government bonds have relatively large borrowing space,and the overall risk is controllable.

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    作者简介
    杨龙翔:杨龙翔,中诚信国际政府公共评级部(武汉)分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    周依:周依,中诚信国际政府公共评级部(武汉)分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    张敏:张敏,中诚信国际政府公共评级部(武汉)分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
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