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    2020年天津市地方政府债券分析报告

    摘要

    2020年以来,天津市地方债发行规模扩张、发行节奏加快,其中专项债扩容明显,发行期限有所拉长。地方债发行利率趋于下行,二级市场交易日趋活跃,但收益率下降。天津市的项目收益专项债品种持续创新,发行成本下降;投向结构转变,项目收益能较好覆盖本息;专项债尚未用作资本金,对投资的撬动效应尚有较大释放空间。从债务情况来看,天津市债务余额增幅较大,2021~2024年面临一定的偿还压力;经济财政实力有所好转,短期内对基金收入仍有依赖;债务率水平较高,但其债务风险整体可控。下一阶段,天津市地方债的管理应注重使用效率及资金投向、合理安排期限结构、加强资金使用管理和债务风险防控。

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    Abstract

    Since 2020,the scale of local government bonds issuance in Tianjin has expanded and the pace of issuance has been accelerated. The special bonds have increased significantly and the issuance period has been prolonged. The interest rate of local government bonds declined and the secondary market became increasingly active,but the yield rate dropped. The type of project income special bonds continued to innovate and the issue cost dropped. Besides,the structural of investment changes,the project income was better covering principal and interest. The special bonds were not used as capital,there was a large room to free up its leverage effect on investment. From the perspective of debt situation,Tianjin’s debt balance increases greatly and will face certain repayment pressure in the years from 2021 to 2024. The debt ratio is relatively high but the overall debt risk was controllable. As for the next stage,the management of local debts in Tianjin should pay attention to the use efficiency and fund investment,rationally arrange the term structure and strengthen the use management and debt risk control.

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    作者简介
    黄菲:黄菲,中诚信国际政府公共评级部(北京)高级分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业、航空行业等。
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