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    2020~2021年奉贤消费品市场形势分析与研判

    摘要

    基于奉贤区“十三五”期间与消费相关的数据变化特征,本报告对“十三五”期间奉贤区消费品市场的发展态势及2020年运行特点进行了分析,并结合新的消费发展趋势和政策部署情况提出了2021年消费品市场研判。本报告认为,2020年奉贤区商品销售额略有下降,但降幅正在逐步收窄,2020年底社会消费品零售总额增速有望由负转正。受新冠肺炎疫情影响,居民消费习惯有所转变,改善类的需求稳步提升,网络购物类销售额实现迅速反弹,直播经济迎来快发展期,上海首届“五五购物节”凸显了线上线下联动发力对消费复苏的积极作用。未来奉贤区还须前瞻布局,紧跟消费变化趋势,抢先布局新兴消费热点。

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    Abstract

    Based on the change characteristics of consumption related data in Fengxian District during the 13th Five Year Plan period,we analyzed the development trend of consumer goods market in Fengxian District and the operation characteristics in 2020. Combined with the new consumption development trend and policy deployment,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions. We believe that the overall consumption growth of Fengxian District will decrease slightly in 2020. Fortunately,the decline rate is gradually narrowing,and the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to change from negative to positive at the end of the year. Affected by the epidemic,the consumption habits of residents have changed,and the demand for improvement has increased steadily. Online retailing has rebounded rapidly,and the live broadcast economy has ushered in a period of rapid development. The first “May 5 Shopping Festival” in Shanghai highlights the positive effect of online and offline linkage on consumption recovery. In the future,the development of Fengxian District needs to be forward-looking layout,closely follow the characteristics of consumption changes,and preempt the layout of emerging consumption hot spots.

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    作者简介
    邸俊鹏:邸俊鹏,经济学博士,上海社会科学院经济研究所、数量经济研究中心副研究员,主要研究方向为宏观经济形势分析、计量经济学理论及政策评估。
    宋敏兰:宋敏兰,上海社会科学院硕士研究生,主要研究方向为宏观经济形势分析。
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