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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2021年上海奉贤经济形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2020年以来,受新冠肺炎疫情以及全球经济形势波动影响,国际形势正在发生深刻变化,世界正经历“百年未有之大变局”。2020年奉贤经济全面加快复苏,经济增长韧性十足。具体来看,农业产值降幅进一步收窄,战略性新兴产业率先恢复增长;服务业发展迅速,税收收入首次超过工业;工业投资逆势增长,网络消费引领新消费;财政资金较为紧张,住房保障逐步完善。结合国际国内经济形势,预计2020年第四季度奉贤区经济继续保持第三季度的增长态势,全年将实现小幅增长。但受国际疫情反复、世界经济下行风险加剧、逆全球化趋势抬头等因素影响,外部不确定性风险加大,奉贤区经济向上向好的基础仍需巩固。未来在全球疫情冲击叠加国家贸易环境变局中,奉贤区须防范人口老龄化风险,加快城市数字化转型。建议奉贤区抓住南上海“未来空间”发展新机遇,继续做强做大“东方美谷”产业,持续提升中小企业创新活力。通过扩大有效投资规模,提振消费信心,实施商旅文融合发展等举措,助推奉贤经济在危机中育新机、于变局中开新局。

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    Abstract

    Since novel coronavirus pneumonia and the global economic fluctuation since 2020,the international situation is undergoing profound changes. The world is undergoing a great change in the past century. In 2020,Fengxian’s economy will fully accelerate its recovery,and its economic growth will be full of resilience. Specifically,agricultural output value further narrowed,and strategic emerging industries took the lead in restoring growth;Financial funds are relatively tight,and housing security is gradually improved. Combined with the international and domestic economic situation,it is expected that the economic growth rate of Fengxian District will continue to maintain growth trend as the third quarter in the fourth quarter of 2020 and achieve a small growth in the whole year. However,due to the repeated international epidemic situation,the aggravation of the downward risk of the world economy,the rise of the anti-globalization trend and other factors,the risk of external uncertainty has increased,and the foundation for the upward development of Fengxian District’s economy still needs to be consolidated. In the future,Fengxian needs to guard against the risk of population aging and accelerate the digital transformation of the city in the future when the impact of the global epidemic situation is superimposed on the national trade environment changes. It is suggested that Fengxian seize the new opportunity of “Future Space” development in South Shanghai,continue to strengthen and expand the “Oriental Beauty Valley” industry,and continuously enhance the innovation vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises. By expanding the scale of effective investment,boosting consumer confidence,and promoting the integrated development of business,tourism and culture,Fengxian’s economy will be boosted to cultivate new opportunities in the crisis and start a new situation in the changing situation.

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    作者简介
    朱平芳:朱平芳,上海社会科学院研究生院研究员,博士生导师,主要研究方向为计量经济学理论与方法、宏观经济预测分析与政策评价、科技进步评价与分析。
    邸俊鹏:邸俊鹏,经济学博士,上海社会科学院经济研究所、数量经济研究中心副研究员,主要研究方向为宏观经济形势分析、计量经济学理论及政策评估。
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