自然灾害的突发性与严重性已经引起国际社会和决策者的普遍关注,成为国内外学术界的研究重点。本报告以世界风险报告中的指标体系为主要依据,构建符合河南省客观实际的自然灾害风险评价指标体系,包括5个二级指标,23个三级指标,并利用层次分析法和专家打分法确立指标权重。在此基础上,利用非线性模型万有风险模型,计算2019年河南省18个城市的自然灾害综合风险指数,并以综合风险指数排名反映各城市的风险状况。对河南省进行自然灾害风险评估,不仅可以为该省的防灾降险提供科技支撑和决策依据,还可以丰富、充实和发展自然灾害风险评价研究理论和方法。
<<The suddenness and severity of natural disasters have attracted the attention of the international community and policy makers,and become the focus of academic research at home and abroad. This paper is based on the index system in the world risk report,constructed the natural disaster risk evaluation index system in line with the objective reality of Henan Province,including 5 second-level indexes and 23 third-level indexes,and establishes the index weight by using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and expert scoring method. On this basis,the comprehensive risk index of natural disasters of 18 cities in Henan Province in 2019 is calculated by using the all-risk model of nonlinear model,and the risk status of each city is reflected in the form of comprehensive risk index ranking and risk map. The risk assessment of natural disaster in Henan Province can not only provide scientific and technological support and decision-making basis for disaster prevention and reduction in Henan Province,but also enrich and develop the theories and methods of natural disaster risk assessment.
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