甘肃天祝藏族自治县位于祁连山东段,境内天祝三峡国家森林公园被列入祁连山国家公园范围,是西部生态安全屏障的重要区域。本报告以天祝县为例,通过社会调研和模型模拟分析了天祝县《祁连山自然保护区农牧民生态搬迁工程及资金补偿方案(天祝县)》(简称ERCCP方案)。建立了ERCCP方案对不同利益相关者收益的影响框架,利用InVEST模型、Probit计量模型、成本效益法对天祝县土地利用/覆被变化(LULC)、不同利益相关者综合成本效益进行研究分析,并根据研究结果,提出了可行性建议。研究发现,ERCCP方案对天祝县的LULC产生较大的影响,预计未来10年生态系统将持续向好发展,进一步提高草地生态系统服务的价值;对于参与生态搬迁农牧民家庭来说,短期内生计将会受到一定的影响,但是一定的生态补偿将会大大缩短负收益年限(由6年缩短至3年);对于生态付费的天祝县政府来说,投资回收期预计在计划结束后延长7~8年;对于区域其他受益者来说,预计2022年后每年将增加5500万元的生态系统服务价值。总体而言,研究发现ERCCP方案对生态系统服务和区域福祉均具有双重影响,必须将短期的负面影响积极纳入政府未来的生态决策,这将会提升区域生态和民生福祉发展的稳定性。
<<Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous County is located in the eastern Qilian Mountains. Tianzhu Three Gorges National Forest Park is part of Qilian Mountains National Park,which is an important area of ecological security barrier in the west of China. Taking Tianzhu County as an example,and using social research and model simulation,we analyzed the “the Ecological Relocation and Capital Compensation Program of Qilian Mountains Nature Reserve”(hereafter referred to as the ERCCP scheme). We established the ERCCP influence framework on the benefits of different stakeholders using the InVEST model,Probit measurement model and cost-benefit method,to analyze the comprehensive cost-effectiveness of Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)and different stakeholders in Tianzhu County,and provide feasible suggestions according to the research results.
ERCCP had a significant impact on LULC in the study area,and the value of grassland ecosystem services will be further improved in the next 10 years. For households participating in ecological relocation,livelihoods will be affected to a certain extent in the short-term,but ecological compensation will greatly shorten the negative benefit(from 6 to 3 years). For the Tianzhu County Government,the investment recovery period is expected to be extended by 7-8 years after the end of the plan. After 2022,for other beneficiaries in the region,the value of ecosystem services will increase by approximately 55 million yuan annually. Generally,we found that ERCCP had a dual impact on ecosystem services and regional well-being. Short term negative impacts must be actively incorporated into the government’s future ecological decision-making,which will improve regional ecological stability and people’s livelihood/well-being.
<<Keywords: | Sustainable DevelopmentEcological MigrationQilian MountainTianzhu Tibetan Autonomous CountyGood Ecological Governance |