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    2019~2021年国际贸易形势回顾与展望:陷入衰退 复苏不稳

    摘要

    2019年世界货物贸易量下降0。1%,这是2010年以来世界货物贸易首次下降。2019年世界货物贸易额下降3%,下降幅度明显大于贸易量的下降幅度,主要源于能源价格的大幅下降,尤其是油价大幅下跌。2019年世界商务服务出口额为5。90万亿美元,增长2。1%,增速低于2018年。受疫情冲击,2020年上半年世界货物贸易量下降8。48%,世界服务贸易也出现下降态势。预计2020年下半年世界货物贸易形势稍好于上半年。2020年全年货物贸易量降幅为5%~8%,是2009年国际金融危机以来第二次衰退。预计2021年世界贸易将出现明显复苏,实际贸易增速将为5%~10%,但是贸易复苏仍面临疫情反复等不确定性因素的影响。

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    Abstract

    World merchandise trade in volume terms fell by 0.1% in 2019,the first drop since 2010. World merchandise trade value fell by 3%,which was significantly higher than that in volume terms,mainly due to the sharp drop in energy prices,especially in oil prices. In 2019,the world’s exports of commercial services reached US $5.90 trillion,an increase of 2.1%,lower than that in 2018. Under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,the world merchandise trade in volume terms fell by 8.48% in the first half of 2020,and the world trade in services also showed a downward trend. It is expected that the situation of world trade in goods in the second half of 2020 will be slightly better than that in the first half of 2020. In 2020,the decline of the volume of merchandise trade will be about 10%,which is the second recession after the recession of trade during the international financial crisis in 2009. It is expected that world trade will recover significantly in 2021,and the growth rate of merchandise trade will be between 5% and 10%. However,the recovery of trade is still affected by uncertain factors such as repeated outbreaks of COVID-19 epidemic.

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    作者简介
    苏庆义:苏庆义,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为国际贸易。
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