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双循环
2020年一季度，中国经济受到新冠肺炎疫情的较大冲击，不过在二季度迅速回暖，三、四季度有望逐步回归到疫情之前的增长轨道上来。尽管如此，后疫情时期中国经济增速特点发生了暂时性变化，甚至与长期趋势发生了一定的背离。在供给端，工业增速表现将强于服务业，需求端固定资产投资比消费表现更强，而有形的商品消费比服务业消费更强。这些变化在一定程度上背离了长期的经济结构变化趋势，但是与2003年“非典”时期、2009年全球金融危机时期的经济结构中期变化一致。本文还分析了疫情冲击下，上述暂时性变化如何得到了投资、消费、出口各方面因素的支撑。最后，本文对这一轮中国工业的“小时代”特点进行了展望：时间长度可能更短，程度也较前两轮更弱。
<<In first quarter of 2020，China’s economy suffered from severe pandemic shock. Then in the second quarter，it came back remarkably. In the second half of the year，China’s economy is expected to recover to the growth path before the pandemic. Even so，the characteristics of China’s growth has been experiencing significant changes. The industry has been much stronger than service sector on the supply side. On demand side，investment stronger than consumption，and tangible consumption stronger than intangible. These changes are consistent with the experiences in 2003 and 2009，which corresponding to the years of SARS and global financial crisis. Because of this，these changes will be obvious but not last for a long term. Finally，this chapter will provide an outlook of China’s industry in the coming few years.
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