受疫情冲击影响,亚太经济体经济2020年出现负增长,加权实际经济增速预计为-2。4%,比2019年低6。9个百分点。疫情冲击使得本已受贸易摩擦和外需放缓负面影响的亚太经济运行进一步走弱。亚太地区在2020年的经济表现总体好于全球,但对全球经济的带动主要来自中国,除中国外其他亚太经济体的增长表现逊于全球整体水平。区域内多数国家2020年经济为负增长或近乎零增长,仅中国、缅甸、越南为显著正增长。亚太地区通货膨胀下行,货币相对美元升贬不一,经常账户余额多有下降。本报告关注的四大经济体复苏受疫情控制情况、外部环境和政策空间影响,经济复苏前景由强到弱依次为韩国、澳大利亚、加拿大、印尼。展望2021年,亚太地区经济将从疫情冲击的谷底中回升,但仍面临较多不确定性。
<<Affected by the shocks of COVID-19,the Asia-Pacific economies are experiencing negative growth in 2020. The weighted average real GDP growth is expected to be -2.4%,6.9 percentage points lower than in 2019. The impact of the pandemic has further weakened the Asia-Pacific economic situation,which has already been negatively affected by trade frictions and slower external demand. The overall economic performance of the Asia-Pacific region in 2020 is better than the rest of the world,but this is mainly driven by China,and the growth performance of other Asia-Pacific economies is lower than the global economic growth. Most countries in the region will experience negative or nearly muted economic growth in 2020,and only China,Myanmar,and Vietnam will have significant positive growth. Inflation in the region has declined,currencies have fluctuated against US dollar,and current account balances have mostly reduced. The prospects of major four economies vary from strong to weak are:South Korea,Australia,Canada,and Indonesia,depending on the pandemic management,external environment and policy space. The Asia-Pacific region will regain momentum from the bottom of the pandemic,but still faces many uncertainties in 2021.
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