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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2020年新冠肺炎疫情下的全球政治与安全

    摘要

    2020年全球政治与安全形势在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击和催化下呈现更多的冲突性和竞争性。受特朗普政府“美国优先”战略及疫情影响,全球化进程遭遇明显阻碍。现有多边治理机制在应对全球性危机时的短板进一步凸显,区域内一体化动力加强。传统安全风险和非传统安全风险同时加剧,相互传导。传统安全风险在印太地区尤为突出,台海、南海和南亚地区军事冲突风险上升。突发的全球性疫情使得公共卫生安全在全球治理中的重要性进一步提升,同时使气候、能源、粮食等非传统安全问题进一步复杂化。2020年的中美战略竞争在疫情和美国大选等因素的催化下不断加剧,导致中美关系发生这种深刻变化的根本原因是中国崛起以及由此引发的国际格局的变化。2021年美国新政府上台后,中美博弈的总体程度预计不会发生太大变化,但具体博弈方式、领域和结构可能出现较大调整。 <<
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    Abstract

    In 2020,the global political and security situation showed more conflicts and competitiveness under the impact and catalysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. In terms of global governance,affected by the Trump administration’s “US priority” strategy and the Covid-19 pandemic,the process of globalization encountered obvious obstacles. At the same time,the weakness of the existing multilateral governance institutions in dealing with the global crisis was further highlighted,and the regional integration momentum was strengthened. In the aspect of international security,conventional security risks and non-conventional security risks were intensifying simultaneously and mutually conducting. The conventional security risks were particularly prominent in the India Pacific region,and the pressure of military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait,the South China Sea and South Asia remained high. The global pandemic further enhanced the importance of public health security in global governance,but also made the non-conventional security issues such as climate,energy,and food security further complicated. In 2020,the strategic competition between China and the United States continued to intensify under the catalysis of the covid-19 epidemic situation and the U.S. general election. The fundamental reason for the profound changes in Sino-US relations is the rise of China and the changes in the international structure,and the future Sino-US strategic competition will thus be a sustained and comprehensive competition.

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    作者简介
    杨原:杨原,政治学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际政治理论研究室主任,副研究员,主要研究领域为国际安全理论。
    张宇燕:张宇燕,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所所长,中国社会科学院学部委员,主要研究领域为制度经济学和国际政治经济学。
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