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“全面小康”进程人民生活发展总体评价——2000~2018年民生指数检测

摘要

国家“十三五”规划注重促进城乡区域协调发展,促进经济社会协调发展;坚持居民收入增长和经济增长同步,加大居民消费对经济增长的贡献。这些战略目标应当实化强化为“约束性指标”,以更显著的民生进步迎接“全面小康”建设进程目标年到来。2000~2018年,全国城乡综合演算的各类民生数据人均值持续明显增长,2018年居民收入为2000年的7。92倍,总消费为7。15倍,积蓄为10。56倍。物质消费比重显著降低6。12个百分点,非物消费比重显著增高6。12个百分点,消费结构出现很大升级变化。居民收入、总消费、积蓄地区差全都逐渐缩小;居民收入、总消费城乡比逐渐缩小,而居民积蓄城乡比持续扩大。“不平衡的发展”在民生领域多有改善。但居民收入比从46。37%较明显降至45。11%,居民消费率从35。91%明显降至31。53%,二者“十二五”以来明显回升。尤其应注意,居民收入年均增长较明显低于财政收入年增2。85个百分点,居民消费支出年均增长明显低于财政支出年增3。59个百分点。居民积蓄率从22。57%持续极显著升高至30。10%,反过来对消费需求的抑制作用加重。依据历年动态推演预测,至2020年全国居民收入城乡比将略微缩减,地区差也将较明显缩减;总消费城乡比将较明显缩减,地区差也将较明显缩减。至2035年居民收入城乡比将继续略微缩减,地区差亦将继续较明显缩减;总消费城乡比将继续明显缩减,地区差亦将继续较明显缩减。

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Abstract

Nation Plan of Thirteenth Five-Year Period focus on promoting the regional harmonious development between urban and rural areas,promoting the coordinated development of economy and society,adhering to the residents’ income growth and economic development synchronization and that the consumption contributes a significantly larger share to economic growth. These strategies should be transformed and reinforced to “binding indicators”,so as to accelerate the upgrade of the national people’s livelihood development index,with a more significant progress to meet the target year of “roundly building a moderately prosperous society”. From 2000 to 2018,the per capita value of all types of people’s livelihood data in national urban and rural comprehensive calculation evidently continued to increase. The residents’ income in 2018 was 7.92 times of that in 2000,the total consumption was 7.15 times and the amassment was 10.56 times. The proportion of the residents’ material consumption remarkably fell over 6.12 percentage points and the proportion of the residents’ immaterial consumption remarkably rose over 6.12 percentage points,showing a remarkable upgrading change of the consumption structure. The regional disparity of the residents’ income,total consumption and amassment roundly continued to be reduced;and the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income and total consumption continued to be reduced,but that of the residents’ amassment continued to be extended. The unbalanced development has improved in the field of the people’s livelihood. But the residents’ income rate certainly fell from 46.37% to 45.11%,and the residents’ consumption rate evidently fell from 35.91% to 31.53%,they all rose evidently since the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. In particular,the average annual growth of the residents’ income was certainly 2.85 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal revenues and the average annual growth of the residents’ consumption expenditure was evidently 3.59 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal expenditure. The residents’ amassment rate significantly continued to rise from 22.57% to 30.10%,which in return aggravate the inhibition of consumption demand. Based on the dynamic prediction test of calendar year,the countrywide urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income will slightly be reduced,and its regional disparity will certainly be reduced to 2020;the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption will certainly be reduced,and its regional disparity will certainly be reduced to 2020. The countrywide the countrywide urban and rural ratio of the residents’ income will continue to slightly be reduced,and the regional disparity will continue to certainly be reduced to 2035;the urban and rural ratio of the residents’ total consumption will continue to evidently be reduced,and its regional disparity will continue to certainly be reduced to 2035.

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作者简介
王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心主任,主要研究方向为民俗学、民族学及文化理论、文化战略和文化产业。
祁述裕:祁述裕,中共中央党校(国家行政学院)教授,文史部创新工程首席专家。
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