本报告利用新中国成立以来公共文化机构发展70年的时间序列数据,在描述分析的基础上,采用了10个时间序列弹性变量,构建了长期协整模型和动态修正模型。长期协整模型显示,文化事业费投入、公共文化机构资本积累以及公共文化消费增长与经济产出增长存在明显的内生依存关系,且公共文化资本积累对经济产出有明显的产出增长效应。动态修正模型显示,公共文化机构资本积累和公共文化消费积累性增长对经济增长的贡献往往被低估,存在修正空间。本报告认为,从政策层面看,公共文化机构发展中的投资保障和重视程度与经济产出有密切的关系;而公共文化事业费长期投资不足以及投入增长滞后是由“两个不足”造成的,即中央财政投资不足和地方投资重视不足。因此,本报告提出如下建议。一是要完善投入机制,加大中央财政对公共文化事业的投入,以激励地方财政投资的积极性。二是公共文化机构的发展应该秉承公益性、优秀文化传承性的价值定位,不能过度转型。三是公共文化机构的发展需要在政策方面加大扶持力度。
<<This report uses the time series data of 70 years of development of public cultural institutions since the founding of New China. Based on the description analysis,10 different time series elastic variables are used to construct a long-term cointegration model and a short-term correction mode. This long-term cointegration model shows that there is a clear endogenous codependence among the investment of cultural undertakings,the accumulation of capital of public cultural institutions,and the growth of both public cultural consumption and economic output. Furthermore,the accumulation of public cultural capital has obvious output growth effect on economic output. The short-term model shows that there is insufficient explanatory reasons of the lack of what cultural investment,capital accumulation of public cultural institutions and accumulation of public cultural consumption contributed to economic growth and there is room for correction. The present report argues that,from a policy perspective,the degree of investment guarantee and the attention paid to the development of public cultural institutions are closely related to economic output. Moreover,the chronic underinvestment of public cultural undertakings and the lag in investment growth are caused by “two deficiencies”,namely,insufficient financial investment from the central government and lack of attention paid by local authorities on investment. Therefore,the present report puts forward the following suggestions:Firstly,to improve the mechanism of investment to increase the financial investment in public cultural undertakings by the central government so that the enthusiasm of local financial investment can be stimulated. Secondly,the development of public cultural institutions should uphold its value goal:improving both the public welfare and excellent cultural heritage,so those institutions cannot be over-transformed. Thirdly,the development of public cultural institutions needs to gain more support in policy.
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