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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    全国省域经济增长结构优化预期测算——当前差距检测与2020年、203...

    摘要

    本报告基于独创和首倡检测指标逆向推演测算合理性现实差距和预期目标:①假定当前全国收入法产值构成之劳动者报酬人均值弥合地区差,支出法产值构成之居民消费人均值弥合城乡比,分别应为现有值114。31%、131。64%,带动收入法、支出法产值相应变化分别应为现有值114。09%、124。29%;假定当前全国居民收入比、居民消费率达到历年最佳比值,居民收入、总消费分别应为现有值104。50%、114。91%。②假定2020年全国生产法产值实现历年人均值最小地区差,至2020年年均增长应达13。28%,带动第一、第二、第三产业构成比相应变化分别应为6。64%、39。61%和53。75%;假定2020年全国财政收入、支出实现历年人均值最小地区差,至2020年年均增长分别应达20。46%、15。53%。③假定2035年全国各地居民收入比、居民消费率达到历年最佳比值,至2035年年均增长分别应达12。65%、13。28%;假定2035年全国劳动者报酬、居民消费人均值弥合地区差,至2035年收入法、支出法产值年均增长分别应达11。94%、13。10%。四大区域、31个省域现实差距和预期目标同步测算。

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    Abstract

    By the original and initiative method of the test index reverse deduction,the reasonable realistic gap and the expected goals are measured as follows:(1) If the current countrywide per capita compensation of employees as the composition of income approach components of gross domestic product bridge the regional gap,and the per capita household consumption as the composition of gross domestic product by expenditure approach bridge the urban-rural ratio,will be 114.31% and 131.64% respectively of the current value respectively;and thus,the income approach components of gross domestic product and the gross domestic product by expenditure approach will be 114.09% and 124.29% respectively of the current value. If the current countrywide household income rate and the household consumption rate reach the best ratio in the past years,the household income and consumption will be 104.50% and 114.91% respectively of the current value. (2) If the countrywide gross domestic product by thrice industry achieves the lowest regional gap in per capita value of the past years to 2020,the average annual growth will reach 13.28% respectively by 2020;and so that the composition ratio of the primary,secondary and tertiary industries will be 6.64%,39.61% and 53.75% respectively. If the countrywide revenue of government finance and expenditure of government finance achieve the lowest regional gaps in per capita value of the past years to 2020,the average annual growth will reach 20.46% and 15.53% respectively by 2020. (3) If the countrywide household income rate and the household consumption rate reach the best ratio in the past years to 2035,the average annual growth will reach 12.65% and 13.28% respectively by 2035. If the countrywide per capita compensation of employees and households consumption bridge the regional gaps to 2035,the average annual growth of the income approach components of gross domestic product and the gross domestic product by expenditure approach will reach 11.94% and 13.10% respectively by 2035. The realistic gap and the expected target of 31 provinces in the four regions are measured simultaneously.

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    作者简介
    王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心主任,主要研究方向为民俗学、民族学及文化理论、文化战略和文化产业。
    李璇:李璇,云南省国际贸易学会消费市场监测与研究中心主任,主要从事市场监测与分析相关研究。
    魏海燕:魏海燕,云南省政协信息中心主任编辑,主要从事传媒信息分析研究。
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