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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2020年北京市人口与水资源承载力分析

    摘要

    水资源在城市发展中占有极其重要的地位,本报告利用《北京统计年鉴》和《北京市水务统计年鉴》相关数据,分析了2010~2018年,特别是2014年南水北调中线进京以来北京市水资源的变化情况。数据显示,随着南水北调中线工程供水的不断增加,以及节水技术和节水能力的提升,北京市水资源总量不断增加,供水结构不断改善,城市污水治理能力和水环境的治理能力逐年提高,北京市水域生态治理也不断增强;此外,随着北京“疏解非首都功能”战略的实施,常住人口规模不再快速扩张,一定程度上缓解了水资源的人口压力。但是另一方面,虽然北京市常住人口增速放缓并出现下降,但人口基数巨大,且随着生活水平的提高,生活用水及其占比持续增加,加之北京市节水空间越来越小,再生水安全问题仍然存在,北京市水资源短缺问题仍将长期存在。

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    Abstract

    Water resources occupies an extremely important position and role in urban development. This article uses Beijing Statistical Yearbook and Beijing Water Affairs Statistical Yearbook to analyze 2010-2018,especially since the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route entered Beijing in 2014. Changes in water resources. The data shows that with the continuous increase of water supply in the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the improvement of water-saving technologies and water-saving capacity,the total amount of water resources in Beijing has been increasing,the water supply structure has been continuously improved,and the urban sewage treatment capacity and water environment treatment capacity have been improved year by year In addition,with the implementation of Beijing’s strategy of “relieving non-capital functions”,the permanent population is no longer expanding rapidly,and the population pressure on water resources has been relieved to a certain extent. But on the other hand,although the growth rate of Beijing’s permanent population has slowed down and declined,the population base is huge,and with the improvement of living standards,domestic water consumption and its proportion continue to increase,and Beijing’s water saving space is getting smaller and smaller.,The problem of reclaimed water safety still exists,and the problem of water shortage in Beijing will still exist for a long time.

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    作者简介
    胡玉萍:胡玉萍,博士,中共北京市委党校(北京行政学院)社会学教研部、北京市人口与社会发展研究中心教授,主要研究方向为教育社会学、人口社会学。
    石天骄:石天骄,中共北京市委党校(北京行政学院)社会学教研部硕士研究生,主要研究方向为社会学。
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