为更好地把握城市群发展过程中的人口空间演变规律,本报告以我国15个主要城市群为研究对象,使用人口重心模型、空间自相关、泰尔熵指数分解等方法对人口的空间均衡度和集中度进行了分析。研究发现,在1982年前后我国人口重心由“东北向移动”掉转至“西南向移动”;高密度城市群开始向西接近胡焕庸线,但京津冀城市群空间均衡性相对稳定;京津冀城市群人口空间演变与全国的情况不同,主要经历了“提高—下降—再调整”三个阶段;我国城市群正在逐渐从发育走向成熟,内部人口分布差异在逐渐缩小,京津冀作为人口持续聚集型城市群,其间也经历了多次空间分布调整。
<<In order to better grasp the laws of population spatial evolution in the development of urban agglomerations,this paper takes 15 major urban agglomerations in my country as the research object,and uses methods such as population center of gravity model,spatial autocorrelation,and Theil index decomposition to determine the spatial balance of population Concentration was analyzed. The study found that:around 1982,the population center of China shifted from “moving northeast” to “moving southwest”;high-density urban agglomerations began to approach the Hu Huanyong line westward,but the spatial balance of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration was relatively stable;The population spatial evolution of urban agglomerations is different from that of the whole country. It has mainly experienced three stages of “increase-decline-readjustment”;China’s urban agglomerations are gradually moving from development to maturity,and the internal population distribution differences are gradually shrinking. The population continues to be concentrated in the urban agglomeration,and during this period it has also undergone many spatial adjustments.
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