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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2020年中国消费市场形势分析与2021年展望

    摘要

    消费是稳定国民经济增长的“压舱石”。2020年初疫情的出现和快速蔓延,对中国消费的冲击巨大,突出表现为短期消费需求受到较大抑制,市场出现大幅下滑。进入三季度以来,随着复工复产复市全面推进,国民经济复苏持续加快,带动消费市场逐步加快复苏,推动线上消费、国货消费、回流消费等新消费热点加速发展。全球经济加快复苏、中国经济加快发展、国内消费市场环境持续改善,将有利于消费信心恢复、意愿增强、能力提升和环境优化,预计2020年四季度社会消费品零售总额将保持3%左右的增长,全年消费规模接近上年同期水平,消费拉动经济增长的作用也将稳步提升。

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    Abstract

    Consumption is the fundamental “stabilizer” of economy growth. At the beginning of 2020,the emergence and rapid spread of epidemic affected China’s consumption greatly,the short-term consumption demand is suppressed and the consumer market went through huge decline. Since entering in the third quarter,as the advancement of returning to work and reopening of production,national economy continued quick recovery,driving consumption market gradually into recovery especially the online consumption,national brand consumption etc. As the global economy going into recovery phase and China growth going back to a relatively higher growth rate,the domestic consumer market conditions will be improving,which will lead to regained confidence of consumers and more willingness to spend. There is great chance that total retail sales of social consumer goods will remain around 3% growth in in the fourth quarter of 2020,with the total amount close to the same level of 2019. Moreover,consumption will be a greater fuel for economic growth in 2021.

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    作者简介
    王微:王微,国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所研究员。
    王念:
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