在疫情和国内外复杂经济因素共同作用下,2020年前三季度一般公共预算收入同比下降6。4%,一般公共预算支出同比下降1。92%,财政形势较为严峻。随着疫情得到有效防控,财政收入从6月开始实现正增长,财政形势总体趋好。非税收入和土地出让金收入对税收收入下滑起到对冲作用,促进了财政正常运行。财政赤字率的提高和财政政策实施方式的创新,保证了积极财政政策的有效运行。2021年财政收入仍面临较大压力,财政支出扩张态势未变。2021年中国仍应实施积极财政政策,财政赤字率可设定在4%左右。中国应注意优化宏观调控跨周期设计和调节,让积极财政政策更加有效;加强财政政策选择与财税改革的协调;高度重视地方债风险,促进财政健康运行;为应对人口老龄化风险做好财政储备的基础工作。
<<In the first three quarters of 2020,the general public budget revenue decreased by 6.24% and the general public budget expenditure decreased by 1.92% due to the combined effect of COVID-19 and domestic and foreign complex economic factors. The fiscal situation is rather grim. With the effective prevention and control of the epidemic,fiscal revenue began to increase in June,and the fiscal situation has generally improved. Non-tax revenue and land transfer revenue play a hedging role in the decline of tax revenue,promoting the government fiscal operation. The improvement of fiscal deficit to GDP ratio and the innovation of fiscal policy implementation ensure the effective operation of proactive fiscal policy. Fiscal revenue is still under great pressure in 2021,and the expansion trend of fiscal expenditure remains unchanged. In 2021,China should still implement a proactive fiscal policy,and the fiscal deficit ratio could be set at about 4%. China should pay attention to improving the cross-cycle design and adjustment of macro-control to make proactive fiscal policy more effective. The coordination between fiscal policy selection and fiscal and tax reform should be strengthened. China should attach great importance to local debt risks to promote sound financial operation. To deal with the risk of population aging to do a good job in the government financial reserve.
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