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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021年中国宏观经济形势研判与政策建议

    摘要

    2021年世界经济总体呈现修复性增长态势,国际分工和政治经济格局加快调整,全球处于动荡变革期,外部环境延续复杂、严峻态势。我国经济延续回升向好态势,但经济复苏不均衡、经济循环不畅通、风险延后暴露等结构性问题有所凸显,巩固经济恢复成果和增强经济发展后劲任务依然紧迫。2021年是建党100周年,也是“十四五”规划和迈向现代化建设新征程的开局之年,保持经济稳定回升、部署推动重大改革至关重要。总的思路上,需要有序调整“保”的措施,持续优化“稳”的手段,努力加快“进”的步伐,深化改革开放,打通经济循环难点堵点,激发社会创新创造活力,推动形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。

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    Abstract

    In 2021,the world economy will generally show a recovery growth trend,but the adjustment of the international division of labor and the political and economic structure are accelerating,the world is in a period of turbulent change,and the external environment continues to be complex and severe. China’s economy continues to recovery,but structural problems such as uneven economic recovery,unsmooth economic cycles,and delayed exposure of risks have become prominent. The task of consolidating the economic recovery and enhancing economic development remains urgent. 2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party,and is also the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the new journey towards modernization. It is vital to maintain a stable economic recovery and deploy major reforms. In general,it is necessary to orderly adjust the measures of “guarantee”,continuously optimize the means of “stability”,strive to accelerate the pace of “advance”,deepen reform and opening up,break through the difficulties of economic cycle,stimulate social innovation and creativity,and promote formation A new development pattern in which the domestic big cycle is the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other.

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    作者简介
    陈昌盛:陈昌盛,国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部部长、研究员,主要研究方向:宏观经济、财税体制和货币金融政策。
    李承健:李承健,国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部第二研究室副主任,主要研究方向:宏观经济、财税体制和货币金融政策。
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