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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2019~2020年英国经济形势

    摘要

    受新冠肺炎疫情冲击,英国经济十年来首次进入衰退周期,供需两侧均受到阻碍。投资进一步向欧盟转移,贸易严重依赖外资企业,且对外贸易结构过于依赖中美欧市场。劳动力市场疲软,临时性失业飙升。疫情不仅冲击比重较大的服务业,导致金融市场低迷,也对制造业造成不小的打击。虽然英国政府通过直接补贴、政府担保贷款等财政政策和降息、扩大资产购买等货币政策向市场提供流动性,纾困企业和雇员,以稳定就业、预防经济衰退,但实施力度较为有限,且造成财政赤字和公共债务持续激增,系统性风险明显上升。“后疫情时代”经济复苏计划能否顺利落地,金融市场能否企稳回升以稳定投资者信心,与欧盟之间的贸易协议能否达成,都是决定英国经济长期发展的重要变量。

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    Abstract

    Affected by the COVID-19,the UK economy has entered a recession cycle for the first time in a decade,with both supply and demand hindered. The investment is further transferred to the EU,the trade is heavily dependent on foreign enterprises,and the trade structure is too dependent on China,the US and Europe market. The labor market is weak and temporary unemployment has soared. The epidemic has not only impacted the service industry,resulting in a downturn in the financial market,but also dealt a considerable blow to the manufacturing industry. The UK government has provided liquidity to the market and helped out enterprises and employees through fiscal policies (i.e.,direct subsidies,government-guaranteed loans) and monetary policies (i.e.,interest rate cuts and expansion of asset purchases),so as to stabilize employment and prevent economic recession. However,the implementation has been relatively limited,and has caused fiscal deficit and the continuing surge of public debt,thereby making systemic risk increase significantly. Whether the “post-epidemic era” economic recovery plan can be successfully implemented,whether the financial market can stabilize and recover to stabilize investor confidence,whether a trade agreement with the EU can be reached,these are important variables that determine the long-term development of the UK economy.

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    作者简介
    杨成玉:杨成玉,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为欧洲经济。
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