国家自主贡献(NDC)是《巴黎协定》最核心的制度,体现了全球气候治理模式从“自上而下”到“自下而上”的变迁。根据《巴黎协定》及相关会议决定,各方将在2020年通报或更新其国家自主贡献。分析各国NDC的更新模式和特征,对于推动《巴黎协定》的实施具有重要意义。2015年左右,193个缔约方提交了165份预期的自主贡献(INDC),展示了各方积极采取气候行动的意愿。截至2020年7月1日,13个缔约方通报或更新了NDC,更新模式主要包括七类:提高目标数字、拓展减缓目标类型和范围、增加2050年目标、丰富政策措施、主动适用导则、突出实施进展亮点和增加适应目标。经过分析,部分国家的更新暴露出了一些问题,包括量化目标数字调高但实际力度倒退、调整目标类型后力度不可比、回避近期2030年目标而提出2050年远期目标,仅提出目标而缺乏相应政策措施,以及实施NDC的资金需求巨大但既有资金支持不到位缺乏实施保障。建议我国加强与各方对话,巩固《巴黎协定》“自下而上”的安排,树立合理的“力度观”,强化国内的NDC筹备工作并加强关于NDC实施的国际合作和交流。
<<Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) is the core system of Paris Agreement,which reflects the change of global climate governance model from “top-down” to “bottom-up”. According to the Paris Agreement and relevant decisions,all parties will communicate or update their NDC in 2020. It is of great significance to analyze the update mode and characteristics of NDC in various countries to promote the implementation of Paris Agreement. Around 2015,193 parties submitted 165 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC),demonstrating the willingness of all parties to actively take climate action. Up to July 1,2020,13 parties have communicated or updated the NDC. The updating modes mainly include seven types:increasing the quantifiable number of mitigation targets,adjusting the types and coverage of mitigation targets,increasing the 2050 carbon-neutral vision,supplementing the policy and measures for achieving the goals,actively applying NDC information and accounting guidance,reporting the progress of NDC implementation,adding adaptation goals and policies Strategy. It is found that the updated NDCs in some countries have showed some problems that may affect the effectiveness of global climate governance,including increasing the target number but the actual mitigation efforts is regressing,adjusting the target types but the target is not comparable,proposing the long-term target of 2050 but avoid the enhancement of the near-future 2030 target ambition,only proposing the target but without the implementation policies and measures,and insufficient financial support for NDC implementation. For China,it is suggested to strengthen dialogue with all parties to consolidate the “bottom-up” arrangement of the Paris Agreement,establish a reasonable “view of strength” in the climate multilateral process. It is also suggested to strengthen the domestic preparatory work for NDC and strengthen the international cooperation on the implementation of NDC.
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