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    非洲大湖地区安全局势走向及其影响因素

    摘要

    非洲大湖地区冲突根源错综复杂,历史恩怨和现实问题交织,包括殖民统治遗留的恶果、地区矛盾、跨界民族矛盾、发展问题等多种因素。在国际社会的斡旋和调解下,大湖地区局势有所缓和,目前其核心是刚果(金)东部地区问题。因此,刚果(金)东部地区问题的解决对大湖地区局势的稳定至关重要。值得注意的是,大湖地区局势的缓和主要是因为冲突各方中止对抗,并未解决冲突的根源。地区局势仍存在一些不确定因素,包括地区各国政局的演变、国家之间关系发展、贫困问题等。本文认为导致大湖地区冲突的深层次根源,如族群、跨界民族矛盾,只能依靠各国自身的国家建设来解决。因此,从长远来看,该地区的现代国家构建是解决地区冲突的本源所在。

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    Abstract

    The roots of conflicts of the Great Lakes region of Africa are very sophisticated,which are interwoven with historical and realistic ones,such as bad causes of colonial rule,ethnic conflict,trans-boundary nations and development issue. Under the mediation of the international community,The present situations of the Great lakes region of Africa tends to be alleviated,of which the core issue lies in Eastern DR Congo. Therefore,the issue of Eastern DR Congo is the key of the resolution of the conflicts of the Region. It is noteworthy that the ease of the present situations of the Great Lakes region of Africa is realized by stopping confrontations among the factions,not by eradicating the roots of the regional conflicts. It will bring some uncertainties,such as the evolutions of domestic political situations and bilateral relations,poverty issue,etc. The paper argues that the roots of regional conflicts,such as ethnic issues,trans-boundary nation issues,should be resolved through nation-state building. Therefore,modern state-building is the key for the resolution of the regional conflicts for the long run.

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    作者简介
    袁武:袁武,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所、中国非洲研究院副研究员,主要从事非洲政治、安全与冲突以及中非关系研究。
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