While militarization and internal instability are the most striking developments in Horn of Africa （HoA） in recent years，the region is facing significant macro exogenous and relatively local endogenous pressures that are facilitating long-term regional transformation. Since the 1956 Suez Canal War，the basic logics of international relations in HoA or broader Red Sea has been the co-existence of two axes：peace along the vertical axis of the red sea corridor and conflicts along the horizontal axis across the Red Sea. However，with the strategic inaction of the United States since the end of the Cold War and the geopolitical development in the Middle East since entering the 21st century，conflicts along horizontal axis gradually spills over and endangers the peace along the vertical axis peace. Despite attempts to preserve peace along the vertical axis，the traditional powers，led by the United States，are not trying to resolve the conflicts along horizontal axis，which imposes significant exogenous pressures for regional transformation. Meanwhile，the endogenous momentum is accumulating in the region，marked by development-first thinking，regional strategic autonomy，and the involvement of emerging powers. Although still many difficulties，it is a desirable future for HoA to promote broader paradigm surpassing through more limited paradigm shifting and finally integrating into the international system.