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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2019年北极航线应用前景及对世界经济和地缘政治的影响

    摘要

    受北冰洋海冰加速融化影响,北极航线的应用前景更加乐观,这意味着连接亚洲与欧洲、北美洲的海运新通道的形成,这将在一定程度上改变现有的航运格局、经济贸易格局,形成全新的地缘政治经济前景。本文基于定性和定量结合的分析方法,从北极航线应用前景视角探讨了北极航线对世界经济和地缘政治的影响。结果表明:①北极航线较传统航线分别缩短了2563海里和1912海里,航行时间缩短了1。6~6。6天,北极航线沿线国家或地区经济联系更加密切。②使北极航线较传统航线航次的距离和时间成本分别下降了27。8%和5。3%;减少了燃油消耗和CO2、SOX、NOX等污染气体的排放。③北极航线货运需求逐年增长且后期呈飙升态势,预计2024年和2030年货运量将分别达到1。05亿吨和3。7亿吨;东北航道以液散货为主,干散货增长缓慢,西北航道以液散货和干散货为主。④北极航线将推动国际产业、技术、航线不断向沿线地区移动,推动世界地缘政治经济重心北移,改变现有地缘政治经济格局。

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    Abstract

    Affected by the accelerated melting of the Arctic Ocean,the application prospects of the Arctic route are more optimistic,which means that the formation of a new maritime channel connecting Asia with Europe and North America will change the existing shipping pattern and global economic and trade pattern to a certain extent,and brand new geopolitical and economic prospects. Based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,the impact of the Arctic route on the world economy and geopolitics is discussed from the perspective of the Arctic route application prospects. The results show that:①Compared with traditional routes,the Arctic route has shortened 2554n mile and 1998n mile respectively,and the sailing time has been shortened by 1.6-6.6 days. The countries or regions along the Arctic route have closer economic ties. ②With Shipping distance and time are shortened,the cost of voyages on the Arctic route is reduced by 27.8% and 5.3% compared with the traditional route;fuel consumption and the emission of polluted gases such as CO2,Sox,Nox,etc. are reduced. ③The freight demand of the Arctic route is increasing year by year and the trend is soaring later. It is expected that by 2024 and 2030,the freight volume will reach 105 million tons and 370 million tons;The northeast route is mainly liquid bulk cargo,the dry bulk cargo growth is slow,and the northwest route is mainly liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk. ④The Arctic route will promote the continuous movement of international industry,technology and routes to the regions along the route,push the global geopolitical and economic center of gravity to the north,and change the existing geopolitical and economic pattern.

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    作者简介
    李振福:李振福,男,大连海事大学交通运输工程学院教授,大连海事大学极地海事研究中心主任。
    邓昭:邓昭,男,大连海事大学交通运输工程学院博士研究生。
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