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    债券违约风险与防范——2019年至2020年上半年中国债券市场回顾与展望

    摘要

    2019年,债券违约规模逾1400亿元,创历史新高。债券违约进一步趋于常态化,并呈现以下特点:新增违约主体评级上移,且呈现一定行业集中度,众多知名企业涉及其中,民企债券违约率居高难下,上市公司债券违约率亦进一步提高。2020年上半年,信用债券违约规模继续小幅增长至815亿元。从债市利率走势来看,2019年全年,呈震荡调整态势。债券市场经历了经济增速企稳到放缓,通胀回落到回升,外部谈判起起伏伏等多个阶段,市场整体呈现窄幅震荡走势。2020年上半年,为改善新冠肺炎疫情下的企业融资环境,政府出台一系列支持企业债券融资的利好政策,债市融资规模显著增长,尤其是信用债融资规模显著扩张。随着新冠肺炎疫情从逐步蔓延到平稳可控,海外流动性危机逐步平稳,2020年上半年,国内债市利率一波三折,呈震荡下行趋势。展望下半年,在基本面逐步企稳、货币政策保持稳健的背景下,债市利率下行空间有限。债券违约风险依然较大,仍需予以重点防范:首先,从往年来看,下半年通常是债券违约爆发的集中期;其次,上半年疫情防控的利好政策或暂时放缓了债券违约节奏;再次,综合、建筑类等一些违约率较高的行业仍需重点防范;最后,在债券违约主体评级上移的背景下,对高评级债券发行主体亦要予以关注。

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    Abstract

    The scale of bond defaults in 2019 is historically high,exceeding 140 billion yuan,and bond defaults have become more normalized:the credit rating of bond defaulters has been upgraded,and new defaulters show a certain industry concentration,with many well-known companies involved. The bond default rate of private enterprises remains high,and the ratio of listed companies in bond defaulters has been higher. In the first half of 2020,the scale of credit bonds defaults has increased slightly,reaching 81.5 billion yuan.

    Judging from the trend of bond rate,the whole year of 2019 showed a volatile adjustment trend. The bond market has experienced multiple stages,including stabilizing economic growth to falling,inflation falling to rising,and ups and downs in external negotiations. The bond market as a whole shows a trend of narrow fluctuations. In the first half of 2020,affected by Novel coronavirus pneumonia,in order to improve the corporate financing environment,the government issued a series of policies to support corporate bond financing. In the first half of 2020,the scale of bond market financing increased significantly,especially the scale of credit bond financing. In terms of interest rate trends,in the first half of 2020,the Novel coronavirus pneumonia has gradually spread to be stable and controllable,and the overseas liquidity crisis has lifted off. The interest rates of domestic bond market have been volatile,showing a downward trend.

    Looking forward to the second half of the year,with the economic recovered gradually and the monetary policy remaining stable,there is limited room for the bond rate to fall. The risk of bond defaults is still relatively high,and we still need to focus on prevention measures:firstly,judging from the bond default time of previous years,the scale of defaults in the second half of the year tends to exceed that in the first half of the year;secondly,in the first half of the year under the background of epidemic prevention and control,the favorable policies may temporarily slow down the pace of bond defaults;thirdly,some industries with high default rates such as general and construction still need to pay more attention;finally,since the credit ratings of bond default entities have been upgraded,high-rated bond issuers also have to be focused on.

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    作者简介
    黄胤英:黄胤英,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心研究员、中国农业银行总行高级政策研究员、国家金融与发展实验室特聘研究员。
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