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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2020年我国基于互联网经济的两融创新、资本市场发展和投资策略

    摘要

    得益于第二次经济全球化提供的产业国际转移战略机遇期,特别是对垂直专业化生产和全球价值链建设的充分参与,东亚新兴经济体实现了从雁行模式到东亚一体化的飞跃,迅速缩短了与发达经济体在制造业国际竞争力上的差距。正是出于对离岸生产商获取知识外溢潜力的低估,以美国为代表的发达经济体知识创新所创造的市场相当一部分外溢给东亚新兴经济体,并已经到了损及发达经济体创新生态的完整性、危害相应的创新潜力的程度。因此,美国要求根据互惠责任和体制趋同原则对原有的全球化战略进行调整,试图将自由贸易由准公共产品转向俱乐部产品,实现知识外溢在遵循共同的产权保护和利益相关者治理规则的俱乐部成员内部再分配。美国全球化战略的调整势必会极大地限制东亚新兴经济体作为离岸生产商获取世界经济知识外溢的能力,迫使中国采取两融创新的国家发展战略,切实提升自身的市场创造能力。本文将主要借鉴梯若尔(2017)提供的双边市场分析框架,理顺工业化和信息化之间的内在关系,揭示对两融创新可能存在的误解,并提出相应的资本市场发展和投资策略。

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    Abstract

    Thanks to the strategic opportunity period for the international transfer of industries provided by the second economic globalization,especially the full participation in vertical specialized production and the construction of global value chains,the emerging economies of East Asia have achieved a transition from the geese model to the integration of East Asia Feiyue quickly shortened the gap with developed economies in the international competitiveness of manufacturing. It is precisely because of the underestimation of the potential for offshore producers to acquire knowledge spillovers,a considerable part of the market created by knowledge innovation in advanced economies represented by the United States has spilled over to emerging economies in East Asia,and has already damaged the innovation ecology of advanced economies. The completeness of the system jeopardizes the corresponding degree of innovation potential. Therefore,the United States requires that the original globalization strategy be adjusted in accordance with the principle of reciprocal responsibility and institutional convergence,trying to shift free trade from quasi-public products to club products,and realize knowledge spillover in clubs that follow common property rights protection and stakeholder governance rules. Redistribute within members. The adjustment of the US globalization strategy will inevitably greatly limit the ability of emerging East Asian economies as offshore producers to acquire knowledge spillovers from the world economy,forcing China to adopt a national development strategy of innovation and innovation to effectively enhance its own market creation capabilities. This article will mainly draw on the bilateral market analysis framework provided by Tirole (2017),straighten out the internal relationship between industrialization and informatization,reveal possible misunderstandings about the innovation of the two industries,and propose corresponding capital market development and investment strategies.

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    作者简介
    张磊:张磊,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心副主任。
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