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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2020年中国外生冲击、创新转型与深化资本市场改革

    摘要

    2020年新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延,世界经济遭受了自“大萧条”以来最为严重的冲击,多国经济被迫按下“暂停键”,全球金融市场一度恐慌。随着第二季度欧美等发达经济体陆续重启经济,全球经济有触底回稳之势,但随着复工的推进,美国和一些新兴经济体的新增病例也在快速上升,这对全球经济复苏形成了拖累。在国内坚持防控与推动复工复产“两手抓”的情况下,第二季度中国经济同比增速由负转正,预计全年经济将维持2%以上的增长,这好于世界银行(WB)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测全年增长1。0%的水平。如果从A股上市公司这一中国宏观经济重要的微观主体加以考察,上市公司在2018~2019年的市场创值能力就已经开始下降,突发的自然危机,对上市公司创值能力形成了新的更大冲击,并且这种冲击存在非常大的行业异质性。从上市公司创新转型之路来看,目前,计算机、国防军工、医药生物等行业创新活跃度居前,在资本市场改革持续深化的情况下,创新活跃度高的公司股票二级市场表现较好,这对优化金融资源配置将发挥积极作用。下一步,应坚持市场化、法治化原则,深化资本市场改革,大力发展资本市场,优化融资结构,拓宽储蓄转化为投资的渠道,促进科技创新,提高金融资源配置效率。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,the spread of the COVID-19 virus across the world has caused the world economy to suffer the most serious impact since the “Great Depression”. The economies of many countries were forced to press the “pause button”,and the global financial market was once panicked. As developed economies such as Europe and the United States continue to restart their economies in the second quarter,the global economy has bottomed out and stabilized. However,as the resumption of work progresses,the number of new cases in the United States and some emerging economies is also rising rapidly,which is beneficial to the recovery of the global economy. Formed a drag. In the case of domestic adherence to prevention and control and the promotion of resumption of work and production,the year-on-year growth rate of China’s economy in the second quarter turned from negative to positive. It is expected that the economy will maintain a growth of more than 2% throughout the year,which is better than the World Bank (WB) and The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts an annual growth rate of 1.0%. If you look at A-share listed companies,an important micro-body of China’s macro economy,you will find that the market value creation capabilities of listed companies have begun to decline from 2018 to 2019. Sudden natural crises have created value for listed companies. Capability has formed a new and larger impact,and this impact has very large industry heterogeneity. From the perspective of the innovation and transformation of listed companies,the current innovation activity in the computer,defense and military industry,medical and biological industries is among the top. With the continuous deepening of capital market reforms,companies with high innovation activity have performed better in the secondary stock market. It will play a positive role in optimizing the allocation of financial resources. In the next step,we should adhere to the principles of marketization and rule of law to deepen the reform of the capital market,vigorously develop the capital market to optimize the financing structure,broaden the channels for converting savings into investment,promote technological innovation,and improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation.

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    作者简介
    杨耀武:杨耀武,中国社会科学院经济研究所博士,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心研究员。
    张平:张平,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员,国家金融与发展实验室副主任,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心主任、研究员。
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