本文运用基于短期约束的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,对我国1995~2018年的月度数据进行考察,分析导致国际油价波动的供给和需求冲击以及经济政策不确定对宏观经济的影响。结果表明,经济总需求冲击导致的油价上涨会加剧经济政策的不确定性;经济总需求与油价特定需求的正向冲击会提高经济增长水平;特定需求冲击导致的油价上涨提高了通货膨胀水平;经济政策不确定性会对实质经济产生负向影响。
<<This study investigates the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks,economic policy uncertainty and China’s macro-economy using a Structural VAR framework over the period January 1995-December 2018. To generate more informative disclosures,we further distinguish between three different types of oil price shocks,i.e.,supply-side shocks and oil specific demand shocks depending on the virtue of their origin. The results reveal that unanticipated positive aggregate demand shocks trigger an addition in economic policy uncertainty. In addition,both aggregate and oil specific demand shocks of oil prices have a positive impact on economic growth,while oil specific demand shocks have a positive impact on inflation. Finally,a surprise increase in policy uncertainty would cause a neqative impact on real economy.
<<Keywords: | SVAR modelInternational Oil Price FluctuationEconomic Policy Uncertainty IndexMacroeconomic Fluctuation |