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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2020年中国医药产业发展走势

    摘要

    2020年,带量采购政策全面落地,省级重点监控制度全部出台,疾病诊断相关分组(DRG)在30个城市的试点全面开启,中国医药产业格局将被颠覆和重构,大量的非治疗理性药品将被淘汰出局,合理用药将进一步加强,限抗继续,过了专利期的原研药将被加速替代,整体药价将降低,基本药物价格有所提高,带量采购常态化、国家医保谈判和基本药物目录也将扩容,疗效确切的、能满足未被满足的临床需求的新药使用量提升,中国医药产业的增长模式将由公关、销售驱动型变为成本、技术驱动型,由中国制造走向中国创造,“小散乱”将被淘汰,以大型骨干企业为主体、中小型企业为补充的药品生产、流通格局即将建立,中国医药企业的国际竞争能力大幅提高。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,volume-based procurement is fully implemented,provincial key supervision systems are introduced,and DRG pilots in 30 cities are launched. The structure of China’s pharmaceutical industry will be overturned and reconstructed,and a large number of drugs that are not rational choices for therapy will be eliminated. The rational drug use will be further strengthened,the antibiotic restriction will continue,the brand name drugs will be quickly replaced after their patents expire,the overall drug price will be reduced dramatically,the status of basic drugs will be improved,the volume-based procurement will be normalized,the scope of national health insurance negotiations and the basic drug list will be expanded,the use of new drugs with accurate efficacy and able to meet unmet clinical needs will be increased,and the growth model of China’s pharmaceutical industry will change from PR and sales-driven to cost and technology-driven,from made in China to created by China. The pattern of “small,scattered and chaotic” will be eliminated,the pattern of pharmaceutical production and circulation with large backbone enterprises as the main body and supplemented by small and medium-sized enterprises will soon be established,and the international competitiveness of China’s pharmaceutical companies will be greatly improved.

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    作者简介
    张自然:张自然,中投中财基金管理有限公司执行董事,博士。
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