房地产业对陕西省经济的发展起着举足轻重的作用。本文从陕西省及各市商品房销售面积、销售均价和房地产投资额出发,以陕西省年鉴的数据为基础,以波动离差率为衡量指标对陕西省房地产市场不确定性进行分析。结果表明,2013~2018年陕西省房地产市场不确定性较低。政策的不确定性、经济发展的不确定性及人口的波动是房地产市场不确定性的主要影响因素。应审慎调整政策以保持房地产市场稳定。
<<The real estate sector plays an important role in the economic development of Shaanxi province. This paper focuses on the sale of real estate,real estate prices and real estate investment in Shaanxi province and prefecture-level cities. Based on the data collected from the Statistic Yearbook of Shaanxi,this paper analyzes the uncertainty of real estate market using fluctuation deviation rate as indicators. The results show that the uncertainty of real estate market in Shaanxi province is relatively low during 2013-2018. The uncertainty of policy,economic development and population are the main determinants of the uncertainty of real estate market. Policies should be adjusted prudently to maintain the stability of the real estate market.
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