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    2019年全球原油贸易现状与展望

    摘要

    近年来,全球原油贸易格局深刻调整,原油贸易总量继续攀升、重心持续东移。2019年全球原油贸易总量攀升至4680万桶/日,同比增长135万桶/日。亚太地区原油进口延续增势,中国继续维持全球第一大原油进口国地位。在OPEC减产和美国对伊朗石油实施制裁的影响下,中东市场份额下降。与此同时,美国页岩油产量快速增加,运输困境有所改善,出口量大幅提高。全球原油贸易格局发生调整,产油国对亚太等目标市场的争夺更加激烈。2020年,全球新增炼能主要来自苏伊士以东地区,原油贸易重心将继续东移。在当前低油价背景下,美国原油产量增速或将大幅放缓,甚至全年出现负增长。此外,IMO2020船燃新规的实施也将对原油贸易产生一定影响,炼厂加工低硫资源数量有所增加。从中长期来看,中东仍是全球最重要的原油出口地区,但市场份额趋降;美洲是新增原油供应的主要来源,在全球原油出口中的重要性日益凸显。在地缘政治动荡和全球贸易保护主义升温的影响下,原油贸易不确定性增加。

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    Abstract

    Global crude oil trade has undergone profound changes in recent years. The total volume of crude oil trade continues to rise and its center keeps moving eastward. In 2019,the total volume of global crude oil trade climbed to 46.8 million barrels per day (mbd),with a year-on-year increase of 1.35 mbd. Crude oil imports in the Asia Pacific region have continued to rise,and China maintained its position as the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Under the influence of OPEC’s production cuting and US sanctions on Iranian oil,the market share of Middle East has declined. Meanwhile,with the rapid growth of US shale production and takeaway capacity,US crude exports have increased significantly. The global crude oil trade pattern has been adjusted,and the competition among oil-producing countries for Asia-Pacific and other target markets has become more intense. In 2020,the world’s newly added refining capacity will mainly come from the east of Suez,and crude oil trade center will continue to move eastward. Against the background of low oil prices,the US crude production may end up the rapid growth. In addition,the implementation of the IMO 2020 regulations will also have impact on crude oil trade,refineries tend to increase their input of low surfur crude. In the medium-long term,the Middle East is still the world’s most important crude oil export region,but its market share tends to decline. The Americas will become the main source of new crude oil supply,and its importance in global crude oil exports becomes increasingly prominent. Due to geopolitical disruptions and rising global trade protectionism,the uncertainty of crude oil trade will increase.

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    作者简介
    夏潇远:夏潇远,现任中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司市场战略部分析师,主要研究方向为上海原油期货及中国石油市场。
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