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    2019年全球石油需求回顾与2020年展望

    摘要

    2019年,受中美贸易摩擦反复、贸易保护主义升温以及英国脱欧悬而不决等因素影响,全球经济增速放缓,全球石油需求同比增长85万桶/日,远低于过去20年120万桶/日的平均水平,整体呈现柴强汽弱、需求继续东移的特征。此外,IMO新规实施,推动低硫燃料油需求不断攀升。2020年开年,新冠肺炎疫情暴发,成为影响全球石油需求的“黑天鹅”事件,各机构大幅下调全年增长预期,全年需求将出现负增长,创金融危机以来新低。展望后市,新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济冲击将延续至第二季度,各国政府为应对不断下行的经济压力,实施积极货币和财政政策,但整体石油需求增长仍然承压,此外,IMO新规对石油需求的结构性影响还将持续。中长期来看,绿色革命带动产业转型,燃油效率提升以及清洁能源对传统石油的替代愈加明显,全球石油需求增速整体将呈现放缓趋势。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,against the ongoing trade war between China and US,trade tensions around the world,and the tortuous of Brexit,the global economic growth is slowing down. The global oil demand increased 850 kbd,which is much lower than the average level in the past 20 years,and showed the characteristics of weak diesel,strong gasoline and demand moving eastward. In addition,the 2020 IMO regulation has promoted rising demand for low sulfur fuel oil. While in the beginning of 2020,the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic became a “black swan” event with giant influence affecting global oil demand. All institutions have significantly revised downward the annual growth expectations. This year,global oil demand may show negative growth,setting a new low record since the 2008 financial crisis. Looking ahead,the impact of the pandemic on the global economy may continue to the second quarter. In response to the downward economic pressure,governments have implemented active monetary and fiscal policies,but the overall growth in oil demand still bear the brunt. In addition,the 2020 IMO regulation will continue influencing the structure of oil demand. In the mid-long term,the green revolution will drive industrial revolution,fuel efficiency improvement and the replacement by clean energy will become main trend,and the growth rate of global oil demand will slow down.

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    作者简介
    张婧:张婧,中国人民大学数量经济学硕士,中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司市场战略部分析师,主要研究方向为宏观经济、国际油价模型及策略研究。
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