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    2019年全球石油供应回顾与2020年展望

    摘要

    2019年,在欧佩克国家与非欧佩克国家继续执行减产协议、美国制裁伊朗与委内瑞拉、主要产油国地缘政治动荡加剧的情况下,全球石油供应出现近十年来的最低增幅,轻重质原油资源呈现结构性不平衡,美国超越沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯成为全球最大的原油生产国。与此同时,全球“黑天鹅”事件频发,对石油供应产生了较大冲击。2020年,受新冠肺炎疫情影响,全球石油需求大幅萎缩,石油市场由上一年的供应紧张转变为供应严重过剩。欧佩克国家与非欧佩克国家在经历短暂的价格战之后,重新达成一份历史最高规模的减产协议,尽管短期内仍难以改变严重供过于求现状,但对于中长期石油市场再平衡意义重大。与此同时,在全球仓储问题和物流瓶颈越来越突出的背景下,美国、加拿大、巴西等产油国逐步开启被动减产,页岩油产业正经历近年来最严峻挑战和最艰难时刻。

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    Abstract

    2019 witnessed the lowest increase in global oil supply over a decade amid the continued implementation of production cut agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries,US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela,and the intensification of geopolitical turmoil in major oil producers. Light and heavy crude resources show a structural imbalance in 2019,also US surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s largest crude oil producer. Meanwhile,the frequent occurrence of “black swan” events around the world had a huge impact on oil supply. Looking ahead to 2020,affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,global oil demand has shrunk dramatically,and the oil market has changed from a tight supply in the previous year to a severe oversupply. OPEC and non-OPEC countries have reached a record reduction agreement after a short term price war. Although it is still difficult to change the current situation of severe oversupply in short term,it is of great significance for the rebalancing of the oil market in the medium and long term. At the same time,facing severe bottlenecks of global logistics and storage,oil producers including US,Canada,and Brazil gradually cut oil production. The shale oil industry is experiencing the greatest challenge and toughest moment in recent years.

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    作者简介
    王佩:王佩,经济学博士,高级经济师,中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司市场战略部副总经理(主持工作),主要研究方向为国际石油市场、全球油气产业、国际油价等。
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