2019年,全球经济增速创近十年新低,石油需求增幅远低于预期,随着OPEC+开启新一轮减产,以及美国制裁伊朗、委内瑞拉等国,国际油价呈现宽幅震荡走高格局,但均价仍低于2018年。2020年,新冠肺炎疫情拖累全球宏观经济出现萎缩,全球石油需求大幅缩减,远远超过金融危机期间的下降幅度。OPEC+结束短暂的“价格战”,重新达成新一轮减产协议,全球石油市场供应过剩的局面有望得到一定缓解。2020年上半年,新冠肺炎疫情在全球暴发,给全球石油需求造成“史诗级”冲击,全球石油库存面临触顶风险。下半年,随着全球疫情逐步趋于好转,需求端逐步改善,加之OPEC+减产效果逐渐显现,国际油价有望重新站上40~50美元/桶。总体而言,2020年国际油价多数时间低位运行,波动率大幅增加,平均水平大概率低于2019年。
<<In 2019,global economic growth reached a record low in the past decade. The increase in oil demand was much lower than expected. However,as OPEC+ started a new round of production cuts and the United States imposed sanctions against Iran,Venezuela and other countries,crude oil price fluctuated with a rising trend,though the average level is still lower than 2018. Entering 2020,the COVID-19 pandemic dragged the global macro economy into contraction. Global oil demand shrank significantly,far more than the last financial crisis. The new OPEC+ agreement is expected to help ease the surplus of the global oil market. In the first half of 2020,the global outbreak of COVID-19 caused an epic shock to global oil demand and induced global oil stocks risk to hit tanks top. In the second half of 2020,with the global epidemic fading,the demand will gradually improve. With OPEC+ cutting productions,the crude oil price is expected to recover to $40-50/bbl again. In general,the international oil price of 2020 will be in lower level with the volatility moving sharply.
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