您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2019年我国成品油市场供需现状及展望

    摘要

    2019年,受宏观经济增速放缓、安全环保升级、油气行业市场化改革以及国际政治形势变化等多种因素影响,我国成品油消费结构正在发生变化。总体来看,相比于“十二五”期间的高速增长,国内成品油消费回归至中低速增长区间。受汽车产销量下降、出行方式多元化及替代能源发展日趋成熟影响,汽油消费保持低速增长;受宏观经济复苏缓慢、产业结构升级、环保政策高压等影响,柴油消费难有实质性好转;居民收入水平和生活质量提升,以及快递物流行业快速发展,拉动航空客货运需求增长,航煤消费保持较快增长潜力;IMO2020限硫令为低硫燃料油市场带来了新的增长机遇。但2020年初新冠肺炎疫情在全球暴发,对全球经济及国际国内成品油需求短期内产生颠覆性影响。后续随着国内市场供过于求成为常态,油气行业市场化改革步伐加快,行业整体利润将被进一步压缩;而数字经济的快速崛起,与传统行业融合日趋成熟,油气行业改变固有的经营模式、培育新的增长动力成为可能。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    Affected by many factors,such as the slowdown of macro-economic growth,the upgrading of environmental protection,the marketization reform of oil and gas industry and the change of international political situation,the domestic consumption structure of refined oil keeps changing in 2019. In general,compared with the high-speed growth during the 12th Five Year Plan period,domestic refined oil consumption has returned to the middle and low-speed growth range. Due to the decline of automobile production and sales,the diversification of travel modes and the increasingly mature development of alternative energy,gasoline consumption keeps a low-speed growth. Affected by the slow macroeconomic recovery,upgrading of industrial structure and high pressure of environmental protection policies,it is difficult for diesel consumption to improve substantially. The improvement of residents’ income level and quality of life,as well as the rapid development of express logistics industry,have driven the growth of air passenger and freight demand,as a result consumption of jet fuel maintains rapid growth potential. IMO 2020 sulfur restriction order brings new growth opportunities for low sulfur fuel oil market. But the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 will bring about disruptive effects on global economy and international and domestic demand of finished oil products in short-term. Since the domestic oversupply has become normal,the marketization reform of oil and gas industry will speed up and the overall profit of the industry will be further compressed. With the rapid rise of digital economy and the increasingly mature integration with traditional industries,it is possible for the oil and gas industry to change its inherent business model and cultivate new growth momentum.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    王旭东:王旭东,中国石化销售股份有限公司业务部处长(挂职),主要从事成品油经营管理工作。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告