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谢伏瞻
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    2019年气候安全评价指标体系与气候安全指数构建——以北京为例

    摘要

    城市是人口密集和经济活动高度集聚的区域,也是能源消耗与温室气体排放的重要来源,容易受到气候变化和气候灾害的不利影响。随着经济社会的发展和气候变化影响的逐渐显现,应对气候变化已成为未来城市发展面临的重要挑战之一。北京市作为我国的首都与政治经济文化中心,其面临的气候安全形势十分严峻,尤其是极端气候事件造成了巨大的经济社会损失与人员伤亡,亟须补齐城市适应气候变化的短板,采取切实有效的措施提升城市适应能力。本文借鉴PSR模型的主要思路,初步构建了包括气候安全压力、气候风险状态以及气候安全响应等3个一级指标、24个二级指标的气候安全评价指标体系,对北京市2003~2017年的气候安全综合指数、气候安全压力指数、气候风险状态指数以及气候安全响应指数等进行了计算与评价分析,并结合评价结果针对如何进一步优化评价指标体系、加强评价成果运用以及提升气候安全水平的政策措施提出了对策建议。

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    Abstract

    Cities are highly concentrated areas of economic activity and economic activity. They are also an important source of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions,and are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and climate disasters. With the development of economy and society and the gradual emergence of climate change,addressing climate change has become one of the important challenges facing urban development in the future. As the capital and political,economic and cultural center of China,Beijing faces a severe climate security situation. Especially the extreme climate events have caused huge economic and social losses and casualties. It is urgent to fill the shortcomings of urban adaptation to climate change. Effective and effective measures to improve urban adaptability. Based on the main ideas of the PSR model,this paper initially constructs a climate safety assessment index system including three primary indicators including climate security pressure,climate risk status and climate safety response,and 24 secondary indicators,for Beijing 2003-2017. The climate safety comprehensive index,climate safety stress index,climate risk status index and climate safety response index have been calculated and evaluated,and combined with the evaluation results,the policy of how to optimize the evaluation index system,strengthen the use of evaluation results and improve the climate safety level Targeted recommendations were made on measures.

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    作者简介
    刘长松:刘长松,国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心副研究员,经济学博士,主要从事气候安全与气候变化经济学研究。
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