北京市已经进入人口老龄化加速发展阶段,及时掌握老年人口分布和养老服务设施空间布局,有助于精准、科学施策。本文通过ArcGIS空间分析技术对老年人口和养老服务设施进行空间呈现,发现北京市老年人口和养老服务设施“中心集聚”特征明显,人口老龄程度呈圈层化;同时运用PADIS-INT人口预测软件对老年人口进行预测,并对养老机构床位数、养老服务设施用地、医疗卫生机构床位数进行预测,为未来养老设施的科学布局提供参考。
<<Beijing has entered the stage of accelerated development of population aging. Timely understanding of the distribution of elderly population and spatial layout of elderly service facilities is conducive to accurate and scientific policies. Through Arc GIS spatial analysis technology,this paper presents the spatial representation of the elderly population and elderly care service facilities,and finds that the elderly population and elderly care service facilities in Beijing are characterized by obvious “central agglomeration”,and the aging degree of the population is stratified. At the same time,the population prediction software PADIS-INT was used to predict the elderly population,and the number of beds in nursing institutions,land used for nursing services,and beds in medical and health institutions were predicted.
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