马克龙改革直击法国社会经济结构性难题,从长期来看,将对法国财政可持续发展、减轻债务负担起到积极作用,带动法国经济持续向好。2019年在马克龙结构性改革背景下,法国经济克服了世界经济下行压力,实现平稳增长,并在提升购买力、吸引外资、新增就业等方面出现一系列亮点。但同时,经济增长动力单一,制造业不景气,财政赤字和政府债务重负也未能实现有效改善。经济发展“增量”不足,仅靠“存量”间“辗转腾挪”的结构性改革势必引起民众反弹,未来法国经济如何走,主要看马克龙是否能坚持改革以及改革的推进程度。在政策制定者长期战略与既得利益民众短视眼光之间的博弈,将是马克龙改革期间的固定旋律。
<<Macron’s reforms directly strike at the structural problems of French society and economy. In the long run,it will play a positive role in the sustainable development of French finance,reducing the debt burden,and promoting the development of French economy. In the context of Macron’s reforms,the French economy has overcome the downward pressure of the global economy and achieved steady growth in 2019. A series of bright spots have emerged in terms of increasing purchasing power,attracting foreign investment and creating new jobs. However,the lack of more momentum for economic growth,the slump in the manufacturing industry,the fiscal deficit and the heavy burden of government debt are all elements that prevent French economy from being effectively improved. The structural reforms that focus only on the reshuffle of “stocks”,instead of promoting “incremental” growth would eventually provoke popular rebuke. The future of the French economic development mainly depends on whether Macron can stick to the reforms and the extent of his reforms. The game between the long-term strategy of policymakers and the short-term vision of vested interests will be the abiding theme of Macron’s reforms.
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