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    2019年外汇管理报告及2020年外汇管理改革展望

    摘要

    2019年,外汇领域改革开放不断深化,推动涉外金融服务实体经济高质量发展。一方面,切实维护外汇市场稳定,有效防范跨境资本流动风险;另一方面,“一带一路”人民币跨境业务发展推动人民币国际化。从国际收支经常项目看,货物贸易外汇管理便利化改革和服务贸易对外支付税务备案电子化稳步推进,在个人外汇管理遵循经常项目可兑换原则的同时,构筑跨境资金流出入均衡监管“防火墙”。从资本项目看,跨境投融资便利化改革稳步推进,直接投资外汇管理实现基本可兑换。2019年,人民币国际化面临新的挑战,须防范化解跨境短期资本异动风险,维护国际收支安全。伴随扩大金融业对外开放成为“新时代”我国对外开放重要内容,外汇市场竞争力建设与国际金融统计制度完善取得重要成效。展望2020年外汇管理改革,须防范金融开放风险,为经济转型提供必要时间和稳定的金融环境;处理好国际收支安全下跨境资金流动、人民币汇率与国际化战略之间的关系;提升中国外汇市场的组织效率,优化跨境资本流动政策管理框架;保持人民币汇率合理均衡基本稳定,稳步走向大国货币复兴之路;破解“一带一路”贸易投资体系转型压力,稳步推进人民币国际化。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,with the reform and opening up in the foreign exchange field continuous deepening,financial services are developing with high quality of real economy. On the one hand,it is necessary to effectively maintain thes tability of the foreign exchange market and effectively prevent the risks of cross-border capital flows. On the other hand,the development of the RMB cross-border business for “Belt and Road” promotes the RMB internationalization. As for the balance of payment,from the perspective of the current account,the facilitation reforms of the goods trade foreign exchange management have been promoted. The electronic tax filing of service trade foreign exchange management has been steadily advanced. While personal foreign exchange management follows the principle of current account convertibility,the supervision “Firewall” for the cross-border capital balanced flows has been built. From the perspective of capital account,the cross-border investment and financing facilitation reforms have been steadily advanced,and direct investment in foreign exchange has achieved basic convertibility. In 2019,RMB internationalization faces new challenges. We must prevent and resolve cross-border short-term capital flow risks and maintain the balance payment security. With the opening-up of the financial industry to the world becoming more important in China,the foreign exchange market competition and the international financial statistics system have been improved. Looking forward to 2020,we must prevent both the “black swan” incident and the “grey rhino” risk;we must control financial sector opening-up risks and provide the necessary time and stable financial environment for economic transformation. We need to improve the relationship between cross-border capital flows,RMB exchange rate and RMB internationalization;improve the organizational efficiency of China’s foreign exchange market;optimize the policy framework of cross-border capital flow management;maintain RMB exchange rate reasonable and balanced basically stabilized;and improve the trade and investment system for “Belt and Road” and RMB internationalization.

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    作者简介
    林楠:林楠,副研究员,经济学博士,金融学博士后,中国社会科学院金融研究所国际金融与国际经济研究室副主任,主要研究方向为人民币汇率和国际化战略、国际收支与全球货币体系改革等。
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